iPhone Pro in June 2009?

Ok, it was a year ago now that I started making noise about the iPhone Pro that I expected to arrive, based on the underwhelming iPhone 3G launch.

I, of course, thought that the iPhone Pro would make its appearance by Macworld in January (not the iPhone Nano thought other people were suggesting would be introduced), but neither was released as Apple announced that the iPhone was on a June annual release cycle.

Now it's February. The speculation is mounting on what Apple might release in June. Some people are theorizing that Apple will introduce a new $99 iPhone.

I can see a $99 iPhone happening, but I'm not sure I can see Apple investing in building an entirely new design to sell at that pricepoint, given the limitations that the iPhone 3G already has.

Apple will definitely introduce a new iPhone in June, but I still believe it will be a new high-end design, not a new low-end design. If there is a new low-end design it will, in my opinion, only be modestly different than the current iPhone 3G.

Instead, Apple will be looking to reclaim its design leadership with some new capabilities to delight customers, and to provide application developers with some new possibilities. In the past year the Blackberry Storm, the 3-megapixel Sony Xperia X1, the 5-megapixel Nokia N97, and the 8-megapixel Samsung Memoir have all come on the scene to provide attractive alternatives to the iPhone.

I still believe the main new features will be a 5-megapixel swivel video camera (or a front/rear facing camera combo) and a video iChat application for the iPhone Pro.

As a recap, here are the features that I predicted almost two years ago for the third version of the iPhone (noting those achieved), which I now believe will be the iPhone Pro that will launch in the June timeframe:

• 5-megapixel swivel camera (or paired with a 2-megapixel screen-side video-enabled lens)


• Video iChat capability (iChat AV)


• Next generation Bluetooth


• DONE - Bluetooth 2.0 + EDR


• A slightly bigger screen (every millimeter counts) - if the bevel can be reduced


• 16gb or 32gb of flash memory


• Hopefully a faster 3G or WiMax network connection


• DONE with 2nd version


• 802.11n WiFi


• Faster processor with lower power needs


• Improved battery life


• Lower price - $299 or less


• 2nd version hit $199-299 - I now think iPhone Pro will also be priced at $199-299 and the iPhone 3G will drop in price to FREE-$99

So, who thinks I'm right?

Note: These are purely my opinions based on my understanding of technology and of strategy, and are not based on any inside knowledge. For someone else's view on possible specs, see here.

@innovate

Clearwire/Sprint Followup

I came across an article today about Sprint offering a 3G/4G USB Modem for $149 with a $79.99 per month contract. This USB modem will automatically switch between Sprint's 3G network and Clearwire's 4G WiMax network when it is available (which is currently only in parts of Baltimore).

It is a great step forward for Sprint/Clearwire that will make the service more attractive, but will people really pay an extra $20 a month for such a big external device?

If they really want Clearwire to be a runaway success, they need to find a way to embed this kind of technology into the phone and allow tethering of the phone to any computer (especially laptops). If they did that and threw in 1000 minutes and unlimited texts and unlimited data for $60 per month. I'm in.

What do you think?

@innovate

iPhone Pro Update

For those skeptics out there who doubt that Apple will launch an iPhone Pro sometime between October 2008 and January 2009 at Macworld, check out this BusinessWeek article. The synopsis is that the iPhone 3G is $53/unit cheaper to manufacture than the original iPhone according to analysts. This puts the cost to produce the iPhone 3G at $173 versus $226 for the original iPhone, and they go further to predict that iPhone 3G costs will fall to $148 in 2009. They go further to estimate that Apple is selling the iPhone 3G to Apple for $499, leaving Apple a huge $281 profit per unit (or about 56%).

This means there is plenty of room for Apple to drop the price of the iPhone 3G to AT&T when they are ready to launch the iPhone Pro, in order to support AT&T dropping the iPhone 3G 8GB to $99, $49 or even free.

Now that Apple has embraced the subsidy model and launched the AppStore, they have a lot to gain by getting to a free phone as soon as possible to boost their volume and increase their chance of winning the mobile application platform battle. Even if Apple doesn't win this battle and only continues on their current desktop/laptop share accumulation trajectory they stand to make big money through increased desktop and laptop sales.

Microsoft has good reason to be obsessed with Apple...

The Second Coming of the iPhone

To commemorate the launch of the second version of Apple's iPhone, I'd like to revisit my original iPhone article from one year ago. In that article I theorized why the iPhone would not succeed, at least not in its first incarnation, and why it would not be until its third version that it would be a runaway success.

So, one year on I still believe that it will be the third version that will cement the iPhone's position in the same way that the third version of the iPod led to the iPod becoming pervasive. The iPhone definitely has the potential to become as pervasive as the iPod, but it is still not ready.

When I look back at the specs I predicted would lead to ultimate success, Apple has only moved part of the way there with its second iPhone. If Apple is truly honest with people, this new iPhone really only serves to take the iPhone global (through the addition of 3G) and to enable more accurate location-enabled applications.

Those are really the only two new features of note on the phone. This new iPhone is really only a minor tweak, a repackaging of the existing iPhone so they can drop the price and have it better accepted globally, not the revolution that is truly necessary to finish the job of making the iPhone the number one mobile phone in the same that the iPod became the number one digital music player.

And what about the price drop?

Here is my theory on that. The price drop serves two purposes. The first is to hopefully increase sales outside of the USA where people looked at the original iPhone as an over-priced, under-powered toy (no 5MP video camera, no 3G, etc.). This offering fixes the 3G and price problems, but does not address the camera issue. This leads to the second purpose of the price drop. This "new" iPhone is to be the entry-level phone in a new expanded lineup that will come at Macworld in January, if not before. My leading thought is that the new iPhone Pro is likely to launch in October - just in time for the holiday shopping season.

The iPhone Pro will likely come with the specifications I listed in last year's article. Apple's strategy is brilliant really. By "launching" the low end phone before the high end phone, it is an easier sell, and in that October-January timeframe the carriers will be able to drop the price of the low end phone even more (to either $99 or even to FREE) and spread it even farther. The other reason to launch the low-end phone first is to give developers an incentive sooner to develop applications for the iPhone/iPod Touch platform sooner, which will serve to enhance the value of the iPhone Pro when it launches.

At the launch event for the iPhone Pro in October or January, Apple will be able to make a lot of noise about all of the applications that the new iPhone Pro will be able to take advantage of and they will be able to highlight a few new ones that take advantage of the capabilities unique to the iPhone Pro. The main new features of course will be a 5MP swivel video camera (or a front/rear facing camera combo) and a video iChat application for the iPhone Pro. This capability will then be introduced into a new low-end phone this time next year at the WWDC.


As a recap, here are the features that I predicted one year ago for the third version of the iPhone (noting those achieved), which I now believe will be the iPhone Pro that will launch in the October-January timeframe:

1. 5-megapixel swivel camera (or paired with a 2-megapixel screen-side video-enabled lens)
2. Video iChat capability (iChat AV)
3. Next generation Bluetooth
• DONE - I think - Bluetooth 2.0 + EDR
4. A slightly bigger screen (every millimeter counts) - if the bevel can be reduced
• UPDATE - Phone might get smaller instead
5. 16gb or 32gb of flash memory
6. Hopefully a faster 3G or WiMax network connection
• DONE with 2nd version
7. 802.11n WiFi
8. Faster processor with lower power needs
9. Improved battery life
10. Lower price - $299 or less
• 2nd version hit $199-299 - iPhone Pro will also be priced at $199-299 and v2 will drop in price to FREE-$99

So, who thinks I'm right?


Note: These are purely my opinions based on my understanding of technology and of strategy and are not based on any inside knowledge.