Apple's Hidden Disruptive Innovation

by Braden Kelley

People often think that disruptive innovation happens overnight, but often it happens one step at a time. Before the iPod was an innovation, Apple had to not only launch the device, but also the iTunes Store for music, and the Microsft Windows version of iTunes. Apple also expanded the iTunes Store to include audiobooks, movies, and television, but by then it had already become a mass-adopted disruptive innovation that has changed the music industry forever.

Apple then launched the iPhone and changed the power paradigm in the mobile industry around mobile applications publishing - resulting in the App Store.

Apple is about to do it again, but nobody is writing about it.

In retrospect I believe we will look back and point to January 27, 2010 as the day that Apple changed the power paradigm of mobile data plans and subsidies in the mobile industry.

Up until now, the mobile postpaid market has been defined by mobile phones subsidized in exchange for two-year contracts (at least in the United States), and mobile data plans that also often require a two-year contract. Even when Google announced the Nexus One as an unlocked device, T-Mobile (or any other carrier) is still going to charge you the same monthly cost as someone who bought the subsidized phone. Meanwhile, The carrier partner announced for the iPad, AT&T, has two regular 3G data plans:

1. $35 per month (200MB limit)
   
2. $60 per month (5GB monthly limit)

AT&T sells two 3G data cards - free or $49 - both requiring a two-year contract. But Apple yesterday announced that AT&T will provide 3G service to iPad users WITHOUT a two-year contract (or any contract for that matter). Pay as you go data access that is actually CHEAPER than their regular 3G data plans:

1. $15 per month (250MB limit)
   
2. $30 per month (unlimited)

To my knowledge, this is the first time (at least in the United States) where a carrier has given a cheaper price for service to a customer bringing an unlocked, unsubsidized device onto their network. This is of course how it should be, but still this is a watershed moment. If other carriers adopt this model with the iPad, then eventually some carrier may start to do this with other devices, and it may open the door for a different subsidy to emerge.

If carriers finally start to acknowledge that people who bring unsubsidized devices onto their network should pay less, then it opens the door for someone like Google to start paying people to use their device. Google could leverage their ad-serving platform and Google Checkout to launch a phone that effectively gets cheaper the more and longer you use it, regardless of which carrier you use and whether you're using pre-pay or postpaid (standard monthly service).

This is the innovation that I thought Google would launch with the Nexus One, but they didn't. Can Google now lean on T-Mobile and others more now to offer differentiated pricing for owners of unsubsidized devices?

The data plans offered by AT&T for the Apple iPad may have not seemed very interesting on January 27, 2010. But, I think looking backwards we may very well see this as a defining moment for the mobile industry.

Thank you Apple.


To see what I think of the Apple iPad, please go here.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Will Apple Introduce the Innovation Expected from Google?

by Braden Kelley

Some great conversations have sprung up around my previous articles on the rumored Apple Tablet (iSlate). In the past I focused on what innovation Apple's potential tablet device might offer and whether or not Apple is likely to make the rumored first year sales projection of 10 million units.

A recent comment from "Marketing Department" brought up the topic of subsidies and whether or not Apple might be on the verge of introducing another business model innovation. So, in this article we'll dig a little deeper into that possibility.

When Apple launched the iPod, they introduced the iTunes business model innovation which turned the music industry on ear, quickly followed by the television and movie industries. Then Apple launched the iPhone and introduced the App Store business model innovation and introduced a new way for people to purchase software that the competition quickly rushed to copy. Now, what could Apple create with a Tablet device?

Well, obviously the App Store and iTunes will be present on this new device, and the iTunes Store will likely be extended to cover books, newspapers, and magazines. An extension of the iTunes Store is more of an incremental innovation. So what disruptive business model innovation could Apple do that would catch the competition off-balance?

Well, in my mind, Apple could very well launch the business model innovation that I expected to come with Google's Nexus One smartphone (but didn't) - shifting the subsidy model.

Currently, when a customer buys the Google Nexus One or the Apple iPhone, the mobile service provider subsidizes the cost of the device by about $325 in exchange for a 2-year contract from the customer. This ties the customer to the carrier for two years (and usually longer). I was expecting the Nexus One launch to include an unlocked phone that Google themselves subsidized in one way or another. One way could have been to pay the customer to use the phone on whatever carrier they wished by depositing money every month in a Google Checkout account based on ad views. This did not happen.

But Apple could take this idea one step further. Not only are they moving into the advertising game with some of their recent acquisitions, but they already have the incredible reach and product offerings provided by the iTunes Store and the App Store. While several people expect any Apple Tablet (iSlate) to have a retail price of $800-$1,000, a mobile carrier subsidy might bring it down into the $500-700 range. Might not Apple then be willing to subsidize it even further based on expected future media and content sales to push the price down into the $300-500 range and make it cost competitive with netbooks and the Amazon Kindle?

After all, Apple makes money (or could make money) in a number of different ways after the device purchase:

1. Applications (Downloads, In-App Advertising, In-App Purchases)
2. Media (Music, Movies, Television)
3. Books and Textbooks
4. Subscriptions (Music Streaming, Movie Downloads, Newspapers, Magazines, TV)
5. Advertising (TBD)
6. MobileMe

You could look at this very much like HP and their ink cartridge business. But how much of a subsidy could Apple offer?

Well, some limited data I found indicates that from this particular data set that the average iTunes transaction is $7 and an average of three transactions per month are made. That would equate to about $21 per month or $250 per year. So, what if you add in games, applications, and other content?

To keep the calculations easy let's say that the $250 becomes $500 when other kinds of content are added in, and using Apple's 30% revenue share, that would give an estimate of $150 per year per user. Yes, I know this is highly simplified, and from a small dataset, but we're just imagining possibilities not doing financial forecasts.

From this point, you could go two ways, look at this as a customer lock-in possibility for Apple and a potential perpetuity, or look at a fixed device life. Again, because this is only illustrative let's simplify and say that over four years Apple might expect (using this data) to earn $600 in revenue per device (excluding advertising revenue) and if Apple decided to dedicate 25% of this revenue to a subsidy, they could allocate $150 to bring down the cost of the device and the rest to go towards costs and profits. Throw in some advertising revenue for good measure, and maybe it makes sense for Apple to subsidize this new device by the $200 that might be necessary to bring the price to customer down into the $300-$500 sweet spot.

But how much of this revenue is incremental revenue? Will the device be an incremental purchase (an additional device people buy), or will it replace a Macbook, iMac, iPhone, or iPod purchase? Would it really make sense to do this?

Hopefully these quick and crude calculations have helped you to see why Apple might consider launching their own subsidy with their rumored tablet device (iSlate, iPad, iCanvas, iTablet, Macbook Slate, etc.) and why they might not. It will be rather interesting to see what they do...


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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Four Quadrants of Innovation

Incremental versus Disruptive

by Hutch Carpenter

I recently wrote up a post, "Innovation Perspectives - No Shooting Stars." In it, I discussed the issue of organizations myopically focusing on only disruptive innovations to the exclusion of more incremental or sustaining innovations.

In doing more research on the subject, I began thinking about the dynamics that apply when a firm pursues different kinds of innovation. A post by Venkatesh Rao, Disruptive versus Radical Innovations, was very useful for distinguishing between disruptive and radical innovations.

Building on that, I wanted a framework for delineating innovations based on their technology and business impacts. Because they're not necessarily the same. The four quadrants below describe the dynamics for innovations according to their technology and market impacts:



In each quadrant, there are different rationales and issues that apply. Let's take a look.

Existing Tech, Manage Existing Market

The lower left quadrant represent innovations that leverage existing technology, and service existing customers. This is every day innovation. The block-n-tackle innovation that keeps companies nimble and operating at rates above industry averages.

Example? See how Wal-Mart improved the fuel efficiency of its vehicle fleet:


"Wal-Mart has taken a number of steps, including the installation of diesel Auxiliary Power Units on all its trucks, and applying aerodynamic skirting. On the tire side, Wal-Mart is working with super single tires. and is testing nitrogen-filled tires and an automatic filling process to maintain constant tire air pressure."


Improving the customer experience is also a critical opportunity. In an era of social-media empowered customers impacting your brand, the consequences of failing to improve the customer experience are higher than ever.

But this quadrant is the one often pooh-poohed by many in innovation. I like the way PriceWaterhouseCoopers puts it in this blog post:


"An unintended consequence of the Innovators Dilemma has been that companies have begun believing that unless they were pursuing a strategy of seeking disruptive innovations, they were somehow losing out."


Wal-Mart's efforts have paid off. The retailer has held relatively strong during the Great Recession, as seen in its stock price. And Toyota famously gathered over million ideas a year from its employees to emerge as a global leader in the automotive industry.

Existing Tech, Create New Market

In this quadrant, existing technology is leveraged to create a new revenue streams. This is the quadrant where the following phrase applies:


"Good artists borrow. Great artists steal."


The simple application of a technology that serves one purpose toward a different purpose can be disruptive from a market perspective. It's not a large technological leap. It's the intelligent application of what's already at hand.

Twitter is a great example. The technology itself is...simple. Web form. Subscription model. Limit to 140 characters. Yet it's revolutionized the way people share and find information, causing Techcrunch's MG Siegler to compare it to a modern day Walter Cronkite. All for a simple little web app. Here's what WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg says about Twitter:


"Whether the Twitter team intended it or not, they've built a killer and highly addictive reader platform with dozens of interesting UIs on top of it."


The thing with these innovations is that they are very much a market-determined disruption. This isn't some sort of EUREKA! the moment the technology is rolled out of the labs. It takes the market to say that it's disruptive.

Clayton Christensen (Innovator's Dilemma) types of innovation will often fall in this quadrant. Existing technologies applied in new ways to address the lower end of the market.

Venkatesh Rao has a great perspective on this quadrant:


"In fact, in most documented cases of disruption, the disruptive innovation was a minor/incremental change and well within the technical capabilities of the incumbent (and was often taken to market by a renegade spin off from the original company)."


This quadrant is the best one for producing organic growth for companies. It has lower risk, but produces meaningful revenue growth.

Radical Tech, Create New Market

If any one quadrant defines the popular view of innovation, it's this one. And that's not without good reason. In the previous quadrant, existing technologies are applied to new markets. Well, existing technologies have to come from somewhere. That's this quadrant.

This is the cool stuff that the press writes about. Check out AT&T's Technology Showcase for a great example of some of these new technologies.

Amazon's Jeff Bezos has done well in this quadrant. His latest innovation, the Kindle, is an example. It includes a new "electronic ink". Ability to read text aloud. It's incredibly thin profile.

And it's paying off. Amazon reports that the Kindle set a new sales record this November. Which points to the Kindle as a strong new revenue stream down the road, and a new source of sales for Amazon's book sales. A home run in this quadrant.

These types of innovations are important for maintaining the long-term growth rates of companies. They provide needed growth, replenishing changes in existing markets.

Which leads us to the final quadrant...

Radical Tech, Manage Existing Market

There are times a company's business is under attack, and it needs to address changing behaviors in its market. Innovations in this quadrant share the high risk profile of the previous quadrant, but they have a defensive nature to them. They don't seek to find new opportunities, they seek to address changes in customer behavior.

Hulu strikes me as an example of this. A joint venture of NBC, Fox and ABC, Hulu lets users view shows on computers. This initiative addresses the emerging market shift away from televisions to viewing on all sorts of devices. It's a better answer for this shift than the music industry initially had for the proliferation of MP3 songs on various P2P sites.

Gary Hamel has noted the increasing volatility of markets across the globe. Customers have better access to information about new options, and are willing to shift their spending more quickly. With this dynamic, expect some increase in activity for innovations in this quadrant.

Companies Need a Portfolio of Innovation Opportunities

In a recent Accenture survey, 58% of executives said their organization is looking for the next silver bullet rather than pursuing a portfolio of opportunities. When I hear that, I think first of the upper right quadrant (radical tech, create new market). These types of innovations are incredibly important, and should be part of a company's innovation efforts.

But there's really a good basis for expanding that view to look at the other types of innovation: technology vs. market, disruptive vs incremental.

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Hutch Carpenter is the Director of Marketing at Spigit. Spigit integrates social collaboration tools into a SaaS enterprise idea management platform used by global Fortune 2000 firms to drive innovation.

Innovation Perspectives - Insights and Execution

This is the seventh of several 'Innovation Perspectives' articles we will publish this week from multiple authors to get different perspectives on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?'. Now, here is my perspective:

by Braden Kelley

For my money, the most dangerous misconception that leaders have is that coming up with a great idea is the key to innovation.

This is not the case. Insights and execution are the most important ingredients for creating innovation. As more industries become commodity battlegrounds, success will now be the driven by two key things:

1. The quality of the insights a company has identified to build ideas upon


2. The organization's ability to turn their insight-driven ideas into reality

As innovation moves front and center in an increasing number of companies and industries, the quality of insights and execution will separate the winners from the losers.

Apple moving into the phone business should not have surprised a single handset manufacturer out there. What competitive response did handset manufacturers expect as they introduced increasingly music-capable phones?

The idea of a phone that is also a music player is not, in and of itself, a differentiated idea capable of capturing the imagination of the consumer, and so the iPhone was not created with the goal in mind of creating a digital music player that is also a phone (though that was the strategic purpose for its creation). Apple needed a strategic response to protect their digital music player market from being disrupted by the mobile phone handset manufacturers.

But, Apple also knew that to be successful in an industry that they had no experience in, mobile phones, that they needed to introduce a truly differentiated and valuable offering. To achieve that goal, they needed a unique insight to build their ideas on of what a mobile phone should aspire to be.

The insight they chose to build their mobile phone business on, was the insight that people were now ready to make their computing experience more portable, while also at the same time making it more personal. The key idea built on this insight was that of the App Store. In building their phone around this insight, they were able to create a device that not only could play music (and help to protect their digital music player market from being disrupted), but could also perform just about any other function that a user might desire (or even imagine to build).

A lesser company would have endeavored to build the world's best music phone, but instead Apple realized that it was more important to build the world's most personal and customizable mobile phone (that happens to play music). This is the power of building around an insight instead of an idea.

Apple realized that the contracts with AT&T and the permission to do something like the App Store, along with building an application development platform that developers could rally around, were possibly even more important than the device itself.

One of the lesser known innovation truths is that a true innovation is often more than just a single idea, but is often several ideas coming together to serve a new key insight. Apple's insight was that computing was about to become more personal and move to the hand as part of this increasingly personal transition.

What insight will you build your business around?


You can check out all of the 'Innovation Perspectives' articles from the different contributing authors on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?' by clicking the link in this sentence.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Optimizing Innovation - Rajendra Seksaria of AT&T

by Braden Kelley

We are happy to bring you some of the key points and insights from Rajendra Seksaria's talk at the Optimizing Innovation Conference, which was held October 21-22, 2009 in New York City.

Rajendra Seksaria, AVP, Business & Process Integration at AT&T spoke about successfully managing your innovation process. Before AT&T, Rajendra spent time with IBM Consulting during the early days:

• Discovering and developing staff with creative minds in order to capitalize on their knowledge and optimizing the innovation process


• Important to create an environment where you can harness the best people (inside and outside)


• Streamlining process and minimizing risk


• Databases are not the key to innovation - connecting people is

"Many people cannot make the mental switch from protecting an existing business to creating a new business."


But at the same time, you also have to be careful not to abandon a dying business too early or you may not have the money to fund the new thing.

Interesting facts:

• IBM gets more patents than the next eight companies combined


• IBM introduced a way for patent holders to get a percentage of any licensing revenues that their patents might get

AT&T's innovative leaders program is run out of the Chairman's office and this program allows selected individuals to have visibility to other parts of the organization and to people in other parts of the organization that they would not otherwise have.

Rajendra gave an example of a situation where AT&T was 12 months slower in cycle time than our competition (42 vs. 30). But, they determined that instead of trying to go from 42 months to 20 months on a 2 year improvement program, they had to try and go from 42 months to 10 months because they needed to try and not just improve, but to vault ahead of the competition.


Are you setting the right goal?


Are you setting the goal in relation to the competition or just in terms of what you think you can do?


AT&T Corporate Innovation Process

• We have built something we think is sustainable. An innovation managemen system called "innovation pipeline"


• When you join the system you are given $10,000 of innovation money that you can invest - values go up and down


• The top 10-15 votes are presented to senior execs


• When the product comes to market, the people who submitted the idea, participated, invested, etc. receive some kind of reward


• First there is sme social innovation, then a pitch, then a project


• But, this is not the only process - this is a corporate-wide process. Divisions also have their own ideas processes for improving things in the division

"Learn from your competitors mistakes"


While focusing on creating new revenue is important, don't ignore cost savings ideas. How much new business would you have to sell to make the same amount of the savings?

Example: a $10 Million annual savings on revenue leakages from billing, cost only $40,000 to get, and that's pure profit. At our margins, it would take something like $200 Million in new business to make that much profit.


Also, think about your strengths and what you need to do versus what you can get others to do.

Example: The group chosen to build the IBM PC, chose to think about it in terms of just assembling computers rather than building everything. As a result it took only 9 months instead of 3 years to get to market.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.