Microsoft - Apple - Google in Tablet Battle

by Braden Kelley

2010 may be the year of the man purse, and it will be very interesting to see what people to choose to put in the new gadget bag they will keep close at hand.

In this article we've got a video sneak preview of another potential Apple Tablet application, and two videos of what Microsoft's entry into the tablet wars might look like. Microsoft might actually fire the first shot in the tablet wars at this week's Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

Apple (iSlate) and Microsoft (along with HP) are both already trying to re-imagine what my be possible in the mobile computing environment, and I'm sure Google with join the fray soon (along with HTC). The key thing to watch here though is not the technology that the companies come up with, but the changes that we are going to start seeing in people's computing behavior. That will be the fascinating bit. Computing is about to undergo a major transformation, and while I would rather see an extensible mobile phone than a proliferation of new devices, I think they'll help us get there.

First let's take a look at a video sneak preview of Microsoft's Courier:





And then here is another video showing a conceptualization of how Microsoft thinks people might use it:





And finally, Coursesmart, a digital-publishing joint venture of five major textbook publishers,looks to move beyond their current iPhone and iPod Touch offerings to woo students to adopt their planned eTextbooks for the planned Apple Tablet in place of regular textbooks. Check out the video here:





So what do you think?

Which device would you like to have close at hand in your gadget bag?

Follow the link for another sneak preview of a magazine application for the Apple Tablet.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Emerging Computing Paradigms

by Idris Mootee

HCI (Human-Computer Interactions) science is fast evolving to deal with emerging computing paradigms. Today it is a little Cognitive Science and AI, a lot of anthropology and Social Psychology.

HCI is a fascinating discipline; the field has its origin in the 80s primarily in computer science and cognitive psychology. Today it exists in a confluence with design as a discipline that owes to traditions including human factors, industrial design, architecture, information design and graphic design. HCI contains a number of semi-distinct fields of research and practices in human-centered informatics. One example is the Sixthsense from the MIT Media Lab. An augmented reality (AR) project, that aims to seamlessly integrate digital information with our everyday physical world. A very cool HCI concept, your hands movements are the interfaces.

HCI is about people, interactions and system interfaces... First, people do what people are good at, such as observation, interpreting, determining what is important, and making the final decisions. There are situations human decisions need to be assisted by data visualizations. Second, computers do what they are good at, which are repetitive tasks and routine. Neither people nor computers are forced to do what the other does better. HCI integrates the two so they can compliment each other to achieve more productivity.

There are a few challenges in applying universal design in the context of HCI in order to provide the formative insight needed to design interactive products that can be experienced by the mass in different contexts. The distinctive characteristics of these products may be identified by briefly considering the changes in the socio-technical paradigm, from the early days of computing to the 21st century human interfaces intended to provide a gateway into the world of distributed information paradigm, the scope and context of use of the computer (hard to define what a computer is these days, or what power is required to achieve the distinction), as it becomes a mediating tool for increasing different types of human (both business and personal) activities.

In another 10 years, mini computing devices will be everywhere as medical and consumer devices reach mass adoption. While HCI is still in its infancy, some HCI practitioners are trying to break away from common conception of an "average" user interacting with a laptop in the office to get work done, and to engage in a conscious effort to develop new understanding, methodologies and tools, in order to understand the following:

1. How emerging new distributed computational paradigms will create new challenges for HCI designs? How do we research behavior that does not exist today?


2. How new interaction /interface design can be effectively used to serve an increasing range of system-mediated human activities?


3. When does interactions / interface design cross the line and becoming service design? Interactive artefacts are now being introduced into service settings in a larger degree.


4. How new visceral interactions that driven by interactive paradigms rather than user needs emerge, beyond the imagination of the novice users.


5. What are the emerging threats to privacy that force us to rethink some fundamental concepts in HCI when attackers, ranging from the curious to the highly malicious, might abuse or subvert the system.

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Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.

What Innovation Could an Apple Tablet Offer?

by Braden Kelley

With all of the internet chatter about Apple's rumored tablet computer, I've been asking myself two questions:

1. Does it make sense for Apple to make a tablet computer?
2. What innovation could an Apple tablet offer?

These questions are not as easy to answer as they may appear at first glance. The main reason? When it comes to technology, just because technically you can make something, it doesn't mean commercially that you should. Technology often begins maturing before consumers are aware of the need or pain that the solution addresses and before the minds of consumers can visualize how it fits into their lives. So, when we look at the Apple tablet chatter and Question #1, we have to ask ourselves:

What is the proven or imminent customer need that an Apple table computer would resolve?

Tablet computers have been around for decades and Tablet PCs have been around since 2001 (offered by multiple vendors including Toshiba, HP, etc.). Tablet PC's have achieved very low market penetration in that eight years (outside of certain vertical success stories), but still every manufacturer has one.

There is already a MacOS driven tablet computer for sale - the Modbook - and it is not exactly flying off the shelves. Competitors are making noise about new tablet computers, too. Microsoft is reportedly working to launch a new Tablet PC platform called Microsoft Courier and there are reports of Android-based tablets coming soon too. All this noise despite Tablet PC sales being only a small fraction of overall PC sales. So what gives?

Well, computer manufacturers believe that a shift may occur to a new computing form factor in the same way that PC sales started shifting from desktop computers to laptop computers a few years ago. But despite Tablet PC's being out before netbooks by several years, it was the netbook that took off, not the Tablet PC.

At the same time, consumers are shifting a portion of their computing from desktops and laptops (and even netbooks) to the emerging class of always-connected handheld computers (Apple iPhone, Motorola Droid, new Blackberry devices, Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble Nook, etc.). Hardware manufacturers are making their bets now and have been for the last several years to maintain a complete product range and guard against any potential shift away from desktop and laptop PC's. There are even rumors that Dell may make a mobile phone.

If Apple launches a Tablet PC, they will not be successful, but I don't think that a traditional Tablet PC is what Apple is looking at. Apple does not launch me-too products. Apple seeks to launch products that offer greater value than the competition and products with new benefits so that they can justify higher prices and margins than the competition.

In isolation, my answer to Question #1 would be - No, it does not make sense, for Apple to make a tablet computer. There is no proven customer need that an Apple Tablet PC could solve.

BUT, there are some imminent customer needs that Apple could solve, IF it could create enough compelling innovation (see Question #2).


So what innovation could Apple offer and how would it satisfy imminent customer needs?

Well, electronic book readers haven't exactly taken off yet (Amazon still won't disclose how many Kindles they've sold - always a sign of hype), but prices are dropping and the recognition of their value in the minds of consumers is growing.

At the same time, most households own one or more portable DVD players and often one or more gaming consoles (including portable gaming devices) and one or more portable music devices. These taken together with the emerging market for electronic book readers, represents a huge number of portable entertainment devices.

Now, the screens for an electronic book reader and other portable entertainment devices are very different, but could Apple find a way to combine the two types of screens together in a single device? The Barnes & Noble Nook does this in a very primitive way. Apple could create some very interesting innovations to create a whole new form factor and create a whole new portable entertainment device category at the same time, one that:

1. Combines an e-ink display with a color LED-backlit LCD


2. Wirelessly connects to an iMac, Macbook, wireless keyboard, projector or other peripherals


3. Connects to your HD television


4. Is good enough at gaming to challenge game consoles for living room supremacy


5. Would provide a better video viewing experience than an iPod Touch or iPhone


6. Has the potential to disrupt the book industry even further


7. Has the potential to disrupt the video gaming and DVD markets even further


8. Has the potential to disrupt the Mac applications market (expanded App Store anyone?)


9. Integrates new human-computer interfaces like the iPhone did when it came out


10. Does something else that I can't imagine because I'm not close enough to the technology

This list, along with the imminent customer needs, makes it look reasonable for Apple to launch another portable form factor, but it doesn't make sense to bring out a device in the $1,000-$2,000 price range. So, if Apple comes out with a tablet, it won't be a computer per se, but more likely a portable entertainment device that happens to also have some computing capabilities. Kind of like the iPhone...

What do you think? Will Apple do it?

Will new display technology like that of Pixel Qi allow Apple to disrupt the Kindle by offering a device that combines the readability of an e-ink screen with the color and video capabilities of an LCD?

Will you buy one in the $499-599 price range? What about for $299-399 range if it is subsidized by a mobile carrier (probably Verizon or Sprint)?

Can this concept succeed until 4G is broadly available (2011 or 2012 for the USA)?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet or iPhone Accessory?

by Braden Kelley

There is a lot of chatter out there focusing on the possibility of a new Apple Tablet being announced at Apple's next media event on September 9, 2009.


Will Apple launch a tablet computer?

Does it make sense for Apple to do so?


Let's look at the current state of the market for computing devices:

1. Many companies and individuals have recently made the switch from desktop computers to laptop computers


• Yet, still IDC forecasts laptops like the Apple Macbook to represent only 55% of worldwide sales in 2009


2. People are only now beginning to make the switch from dumb phones to smartphones in earnest


• Yet in Q4 2008, only 23% of handsets sold in the USA were smartphones like the Apple iPhone (according to NPD group)


3. Netbooks are currently the hot computing category


4. Mobile operators in many countries charge by the device for Internet access


• Adding an Apple Tablet would likely add $60/month to a mobile phone bill in the USA

So, given that a huge majority of individuals don't even have a smartphone, are starting to keep their hardware longer, and may have just purchased a new laptop or netbook, does it make sense for Apple to launch a tablet or netbook computer?


I may be completely wrong, but personally I think that:

1. Apple will not announce an Apple Tablet or Apple Netbook on September 9, 2009


• Even if they wanted to, I don't think they could make such a launch before January 2010 at the earliest


2. Apple may never launch an Apple Tablet or an Apple Netbook


• Experimentation with touch screens of various sizes could also point to a wireless iPhone and iPod Touch accessory

A Shift in How We Compute


People's behavior is changing. As people move to smartphones like the Apple iPhone, these devices are occupying the middle space (around the neighborhood), and the mobility of laptops is shifting to the edges - around the house and around the world.

Personally I believe that as smartphones and cloud computing evolve, these devices will become our primary computing hub and new hardware will be introduced that connects physically, wirelessly or virtually to enhance storage, computing power, screen size, input needs, output needs, etc.


- This would be thinking differently.
- This would be more than introducing a 'me-too, but a little better' product.
- This would be innovation.

And this would allow Apple (or someone else), by embracing this concept, to link up with pervasive, mobile, wearable computing efforts like those underway at IBM Research and elsewhere.


What will Apple really do?


What do you think?


See also: "Apple's Dilemma - Netbook, Tablet or Bigger iPod Touch"

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Microsoft's Vision for 2019

I found this video showing how Microsoft imagines we might interact with technology in the world in 2019, and I can't say that I agree with what they find to be compelling real world uses for future technology.

As I watched the video, I saw lots of things that were visually interesting but very little that would deliver increased productivity or true value in terms of time or money savings.



Most of what they are imagining I find to be visual noise, that would actually decrease productivity and overload the brain.

The most compelling thing I saw was the digital white board that they quickly skipped over.

Second most compelling was the plant identification by video input example. If you expand that to showing the computer just about anything and receiving back information about what you are seeing, it could be a very valuable educational tool.

What do you see in this video that is compelling?

@innovate

The Napkin PC and Other Innovative Ideas

I came across the web site for a Microsoft-sponsored alternative computing form factor contest the other day, and I must say there were a few interesting ideas that might help people begin to see the future of computing.

The most interesting concept was coincidentally the winner of the contest, the Napkin PC.

If you follow the link above you'll see the artist conceptions and get a good sense of the vision. The gist is that some of the greatest advances in the world have been conceived on the lowly paper napkin in restaurants and coffee shops all over the world, so why not take the napkin high tech. Just don't try and wipe up spilled coffee with it.

The concept consists of a rack to contain and potentially recharge the OLED "napkins" and the styluses that go with them. These "napkins" provide a computing interface much like a tablet computer and can be pinned up on a board or connected together to make a larger display.

The concept is targeted squarely at the brainstorming, ideation, collaboration space and if the designer can ever manage to pull it off, I think it would be a welcome tool for organizations everywhere.

So what is your vision for the future of computing?

Are there other sites on this topic you think others would find interesting?
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