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Monday, November 16, 2009

Detroit's Decline and Fall

by Rowan Gibson

Doorman TaxiIn March 2008, British Airways discontinued its decades-old daily service between London Heathrow and Detroit. Not exactly world-shattering news, you might think. But BA's decision was quite significant. They made it because passenger numbers had dwindled so pathetically low that the flights were no longer profitable. It's just one of a whole kaleidoscope of symptoms that signaled the Motor City's dismal decline. Then, Detroit's "Big Three" automakers were forced to beg for billions in bailout money to stave off bankruptcy (although Ford opted out). Yet, as far as I can see, not one of them seems to have a credible plan for long-term viability. All of which begs the burning question: How could such powerful car giants ever get in this sorry state?

Over twenty years ago, auto-industry analyst Maryann Keller wrote a book called "Rude Awakening: The Rise, Fall, and Struggle for Recovery of General Motors". It recounts hair-raising stories of GM's arrogant excesses. One story involved a sales VP attending a regional sales meeting who insisted that his hotel room have a refrigerator filled with soft drinks. Since the hotel couldn't get the fridge up the stairs, GM's local people persuaded the hotel to take out the room's window and part of the wall, then use a crane to insert the fridge through the hole! Another story involved a junior GM staffer who was assigned to stand for ages outside a hotel in a snowstorm, just so he could be there to open the door for an assistant general sales manager who was flying in from Central Office. GM even bought one of the hotel elevators and blocked it off so that this manager would have his own private elevator to use. And, as if that wasn't enough, the kitchen staff was instructed to test his glass of morning orange juice with a thermometer because Mr. Important wanted it served at a particular temperature!

This was the kind of insane stuff that continued to go on while the Japanese were stealing percentage point after percentage point of GM's U.S. market share. Fast forward to today, and we found that the five best-selling automobiles in North America in 2008 were (in this order): the Toyota Camry, the Honda Accord, the Toyota Corolla, the Honda Civic, and the Nissan Altima. And, bailout or no bailout, the prognosis for Detroit was not looking good.

It seems the Big Three have taken an excessive, heavy-handed approach to almost everything they have touched over the last few decades. Including innovation. While Toyota, for example, took a careful, staged approach to building alternative powertrains (and scored big with its hybrid technology), GM famously blew billions of dollars on its massive but so far failed forays into electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles. In the late 1980s, Ford's top brass tried to push the company's engineers to be more innovative by setting up a high level "Committee for Creativity". Yet rather than making the cultural environment more conducive to innovation, this initiative actually had the reverse effect. When engineers were brought in to report to the committee, they found that they were being judged, criticized, and ordered to work on their boss's pet projects. It became just another example of the massive hand of authority imposing itself and intimidating people. Instead of fostering or facilitating creativity, the committee was trying to command and control it. No wonder the structure was eventually scrapped.

In 1994, I had a conversation with strategy guru Gary Hamel about the state of innovation in Motor City. His gripe was that 'there has not been one fundamental strategic innovation in the automobile industry in the last 40 to 50 years that has come out of Detroit'. A couple of years later, I related this to a former top manager at one of the Big Three. At first, his response seemed to contradict Hamel's view. He said, 'Rowan, some of the most important and innovative ideas in the auto industry came out of Detroit'. But then, with a look of deep frustration and despair, he added, 'Very few of them were implemented'. The reason? People couldn't get the resources, the investment and the support they needed to make their ideas happen. As The New York Times put it last year, 'GM's biggest failing, reflected in a clear pattern over recent decades, has been its inability to strike a balance between those inside the company who pushed for innovation ahead of the curve, and the finance executives who worried more about returns on investment.'

Of course, uncontrollable external events in the U.S. economy have rapidly worsened Detroit's woes over the past couple of years. But, let's be honest, the Big Three have been hemorrhaging billions of dollars for years. In 2006 and 2007 alone, Chrysler lost over $3 billion, Ford lost over $15 billion, and GM lost over $40 billion! Nobody can blame those numbers on the U.S. economy, because it was growing briskly for six straight years from 2001 through 2007, as were the sales figures of Detroit's Japanese and German competitors. Instead, the accusing finger is increasingly being pointed at the failure - particularly of GM - to successfully innovate; to continually come up with and commercialize new ideas (and new vehicles) that create meaningful value for customers.

GM candidly admitted this for the first time in a one-page advertisement that ran a year ago in Automotive News. In this open letter, entitled "GM's Commitment to the American People", the company frankly acknowledged that it had "disappointed" and sometimes even "betrayed" U.S. consumers with its lackluster products. Instead of innovating in response to shifts in the marketplace (come on, guys, the writing has been on the wall since the 1973 oil crisis, for crying out loud!), GM has been impossibly slow at adapting its cars to changing customer needs.

If, then, it's essentially an ineptitude at innovation that has driven Detroit's once-great industry leaders down the toilet, I would argue that companies of all shapes and sizes should sit up, take note and, more importantly, take action to make innovation happen inside their own organizations.



Rowan GibsonRowan Gibson is widely recognized as one of the world's leading experts on enterprise innovation. He is co-author of the bestseller "Innovation to the Core" and a much in-demand public speaker around the globe. On Twitter he is @RowanGibson.

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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Detroit, D.C.

by Steve McKee

Crysler and GM Perceived QualityNot a day goes by without more news about Detroit's beleaguered automakers. While each new development is notable in and of itself, I find it more telling to take a few steps back and look at the big picture.

Below are a few clips from selected Wall Street Journal articles I've run across over just the last few days. Take a minute and scroll through them. They tell a fascinating tale.

First, GM continues its inability to focus, revealing a growing lack of consensus between management and the board:

"In a dramatic change of course, General Motors Co. backed out of a deal to sell the company's European operations to car-parts supplier Magna International Inc., and now plans to spend billions to restructure the money-losing business itself."

"The decision...was made at a board meeting Tuesday in which the company's directors strayed from the plan of Chief Executive Frederick "Fritz" Henderson, who had spent months negotiating the Magna agreement."

"The Opel deal is the second major transaction to fall apart for Mr. Henderson in little over a month."

"Whereas Mr. Henderson's predecessor, Rick Wagoner, had often won in the boardroom by relying on the support of long-serving directors, Mr. Henderson appears to be tiptoeing through land mines of strong opinions by adjusting his game plan."

"Carl-Peter Forster, who worked for GM for more than nine years, is quitting as chief executive of GM Europe. The decision follows a vote by the company's board of directors on Tuesday to scrap a plan to sell control of the German Opel unit..."

"Despite his dissent of late, Mr. Forster was long viewed as a strong asset on GM's executive roster and his departure serves another blow to Mr. Henderson, who has seen his management bench shorten since the company's exit from bankruptcy."


Across town, Chrysler is making fairy-tale sales and market share predictions to try to convince investors (that means you, taxpayer) that it will repay the $9 billion it owes us by 2014:

"The company said it is counting on a slew of new models to spark a surge in sales over the next five years and drive its revival."

"Chrysler - which has seen its sales plunge by half in the last few years - predicted revenue will rise about 20% a year, from $42.5 billion in 2010 to $67.5 billion in 2014, and said it would break even in 2011."

"To hit its financial targets, Chrysler expects to double its world-wide sales, from 1.3 million cars and trucks in 2009 to 2.8 million in 2014, and predicted its U.S. market share will rise from about 6% in 2009 to 11% in 2014."


Meanwhile, Detroit's only private automotive company, Ford, has gone about regaining its focus, finding its nerve and sticking to its game plan.

"Last week Consumer Reports gave the company quality ratings comparable to those of Honda and Toyota."

"On Monday, Ford reported its second consecutive quarterly profit - and more impressively, a swing from a $7.7 billion cash burn a year earlier to positive cash flow of $1.3 billion in the just-ended third quarter..."

"The company gained a percentage of market share in the first 10 months of this year, no easy feat in an ultra-competitive market."

"The company's turnaround actually began three years ago with decisions that amounted to zagging every time that General Motors zigged, which was remarkable for a company whose strategy for decades was to follow GM."

"While GM kept its unwieldy assortment of eight brands, Ford sold Jaguar and Land Rover, cutting its brand lineup down to a manageable size."

"What's more, shedding brands and shunning the mortgage business has helped Ford focus on quality, where it had slipped badly early in this decade."

"Consumer Reports said last week that 90% of Fords, Mercurys and Lincolns rate average or better in quality, right up there with Honda and Toyota."

"When the economy recovers and car sales increase, Ford could be in great shape."


The automotive business is complex, but it doesn't have to be that hard. Focus, nerve, consistency, consensus - no matter the industry, all tend to diminish when growth stalls. And all are essential to getting it back.

At the moment, Ford is the only one of the Big 3 to be paying attention.



Steve McKeeSteve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

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