Innovation Perspectives - Leader's Role in Trend Spotting

This is the first of several 'Innovation Perspectives' articles we will publish this week from multiple authors to get different perspectives on 'Who should be responsible (if anyone) for trend-spotting and putting emerging behaviors and needs into context for a business?'. So to kick it off, here is Jim Estill's perspective:

by Jim Estill

I believe that it is the leader's role to be active in spotting trends in both the market and within the company. Of course in order to do this, they need to get the assistance and input from all of their people.

A leader who believes in Trend Spotting and believes in capitalizing on emerging trends and technologies can set the example for staff to create an openness that new ideas and trends are brought forward.

I found when I was leader of a 2 billion dollar organization that the bulk of the emerging trends were presented to me filtered through a number of different eyes of people who worked for me, people in the industry, people in the press, etc. and the trends tended to be a synthesis of ideas.

The following are my seven rules of Trend Spotting:

1. If trends aren't going the way you want them to go, then create change. One of the best ways to have a trend and for everyone to think you're genius for knowing the trend is to nudge it along or create it. As a leader of an organization, you often have lots of resources like sales, marketing, R&D, etc. that you can put towards creating a trend.


2. Different trends are worthwhile for different companies at different ages and stages and resource capacity. I'm a business optimist and believe that there are right-sized business opportunities for every company at every size and that successful companies are the ones that choose the right-sized opportunity for them. Just because something is a trend, does not mean a company is positioned to take advantage of it or that they can make money on it.


3. Existing companies are often hampered by their own paradigm. What got you here won't get you there. It's difficult, particularly for companies that are doing reasonably well to consider going into new markets and looking at new trends since they've profited by the old patterns. It takes a great leader to be willing to give up a proven company method and to risk some on emerging trends.


4. Leaders are meant to lead and to be visionary, managers are meant to implement and be tactical. If you're the leader of an organization, recognize that your greatest value is in being visionary (even though implementation still counts). That would mean Trend Spotting...


5. A leader needs to set the example by being open to new ideas. They also need to free up resources where required in order to allow their company to take advantage of trends.


6. I have been wrongly credited with being a genius at spotting trends. The reason why I say "wrongly credited" is I often placed multiple bets on multiple horses within a technology race at the same time. So I was right when I joined the board of RIM. Blackberry did become huge (and I still sit on that board today). I was right when we signed Apple as a product line in 1992 when everyone said they were going bankrupt. At the same time, I did these "genius moves" I also invested in a number of companies which are no longer here today and I sold a number of product lines from companies you've never heard of because they've also gone away.


7. One of my favorite mantras is "Fail Often. Fail Fast. Fail Cheap." So although I have my foot planted firmly in multiple camps, I don't risk so much that failure in one area creates a failure.

It's the leader's responsibility to spot trends but clearly this is not done in a vacuum, it's their role to inspire everyone to give them input.


You can check out all of the 'Innovation Perspectives' articles from the different contributing authors on 'Who should be responsible (if anyone) for trend-spotting and putting emerging behaviors and needs into context for a business?' by clicking the link in this sentence.

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Jim Estill is a venture capitalist, author and business consultant. He sits on the board of RIM. He is a blogger at www.jimestill.com or follow him on twitter @jimestill.

Innovation Perspectives - Five Misconceptions of Innovation

This is the third of several 'Innovation Perspectives' articles we will publish this week from multiple authors to get different perspectives on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?'. Now, here is Jim Estill's perspective:

by Jim Estill

The five most common misconceptions of innovation include:

1.In order for an innovation to succeed, it must be dramatically different than any other products in the market. Wrong. In reality if something is dramatically different than what's in the market, it can be very difficult for people to put a frame of reference on the product, so they won't know what to do with it to start with. I sit on the board of Research In Motion and when RIM first came out with their Blackberry, they called it a two-way pager, because people in that area understood what pager was, but didn't understand an e-mail device on their hip.

2. Major innovation is most important. Wrong. In most cases, innovation is not major, not catastrophic, rather it happens a little bit at a time. One of the best processes I've seen to to innovate within a company is the very simple five whys and asking the how question at the end. This helps create a planned course of action, critical to any new project.

3. Everyone likes change. Wrong. Although most people say they like change, when it comes to really changing, most people actually prefer the status quo. In order to get changes to be adopted, usually there needs to be pain in not changing, or there needs to be enough pleasure in changing to get people to change.

One thing that slows change is often there is temporary pain before the pleasure begins, for example adopting a new technology. Like getting a new digital camera for instance. It takes a little time to get used to, plug in, figure out how to do everything on it, where the old camera which arguably gives less pleasure and worse pictures is simple, easy and no pain.

4. Management, experts and creative people are the ones best to come up with innovation. Wrong. Some of the best innovations come from people who are actually on the line or the customers using the product. Many great innovations come from people whose job it is not to really come up with the innovations. Innovations are often an accidental result of someone who is not really trying to innovate or not knowing enough not to try something that the experts "know cannot possibly work".

Often, innovations are the work of lazy people. "If you have a difficult task, give it to a lazy person; they will find an easier way to do it." – Hlade's Law

5. All innovation is good. Wrong. There's many innovations that are best left in the closet. We've all seen and heard of lots of inventions that we laugh at, that should never have been brought to the market. One example that comes to mind is a motorized ice cream cone.


You can check out all of the 'Innovation Perspectives' articles from the different contributing authors on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?' by clicking the link in this sentence.

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Jim Estill is a venture capitalist, author and business consultant. He sits on the board of RIM. He is a blogger at www.jimestill.com or follow him on twitter @jimestill.

For Better Innovation - Fail Often, Fail Fast, Fail Cheap

by Jim Estill

Companies need to be encouraging of failure. Too often people are disciplined for trying things that do not work. I advocate the opposite. Praise those who try - even if they fail.

Fail Often

• Much of success is just a numbers game. Try more things and you are more likely to find a winner. Innovation is like sales - you never know which idea will be the winner until you try things. A big obstacle for anyone reluctant to try something new is being afraid to fail. Thomas Edison for example had to make thousands of attempts at the electric lightbulb before getting it right. Don't give up after your first challenge. Our most successful leaders and entrepreneurs have often had to make at least a few attempts before they began to thrive.

Fail Fast

• One challenge many companies are faced with is being slow. Using the Fail Fast approach the motto is 'Just Try It - Now'. Many companies suffer from analysis paralysis where often the best choice is to just try it. It is often better to make an imperfect decision quickly than to not make a decision while trying to be perfect. More companies (and people) lose from perfection than lose from speed. Being able to fail fast can often mean getting a head start over the competition. In many cases you can work on the actual implementation later on and make changes as needed.

Fail Cheap

• Of course failures need to be affordable. This means thinking downside and risk. Risk what you can afford. Companies that thrive take 'manageable risks'. Be creative with ways of keeping risk low, perhaps you can test a product with a focus group instead of over-producing. Try to negotiate a deal first before accepting all the terms and conditions. Leverage the power of information and talent. Failing cheaply means you can get back on your feet more easily than someone who overextended themselves.

Having failures does not make you a failure. Not trying makes you a failure.

So Fail Often, Fail Fast, Fail Cheap. Use failure to innovate.

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Jim Estill is a venture capitalist, author and business consultant. He sits on the board of RIM. He is a blogger at www.jimestill.com or follow him on twitter @jimestill.