Real Reason Amazon Should Acquire Netflix

by Ric Merrifield

Amazon and Netflix might be great together, but not for the reasons you might think.

The way I see this, it's a little bit like peanut butter and chocolate, two great tastes you might not expect to go well together. People are talking about the possible acquisition of video company Netflix by Amazon, and they are speculating that it has to do with movies and streaming media. Maybe, but I don't think that's why this acquisition would be so powerful, and I am frankly surprised I haven't heard more people talking about this.

Here's why.

One of the biggest mistakes I think Amazon has been making all along is ignoring the buying history of customers. They never recommend anything to me based on my buying history. They tell me what other people have bought when I buy a certain book or a tent or a squash racket, but they don't seem to really pay attention to what I buy and what I like. And I buy a LOT on Amazon. They are crazy to have ignored this for so long.

By contrast, Netflix has the most incredible recommendation process ever. While I do have to make the effort to rate movies I have watched (irrespective of whether I watched them through Netflix) based on what I have liked and what I haven't liked, they have the ability to say, for example, that for a movie like Pulp Fiction, while the average viewer gave it three and a half stars out of five, based on my history and preferences, they think I would like it much more, on the order of four and a half stars. What's amazing to me is that they are always right, and I have really unusual taste in movies.

Back to peanut butter and chocolate - if Amazon could use the Netflix recommendation engine innovations to do a better job of tracking my purchases and preferences and recommending everything from books to movies to music to running shoes, it would be amazing.

Is it worth it? Well as of today, Netflix is worth about $3.22 billion, according to Wall Street, and Amazon is about 16 times bigger at $52 billion and to have this incredible way to connect with customers and help them find what they will really like even before they know about it, that would be a huge, much needed, boost for Amazon. The lift in revenue would be significant - just ask anyone in retail about how much upselling is done at the point of purchase.

Overdue rethinking at Amazon, but a great match. I really hope it happens.

P.S. It makes for an interesting side note that if Amazon does buy Netflix, that would probably put founder and CEO Reed Hastings on the board, and he's already on the board of Microsoft. Would he stay on the board of Microsoft?


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Ric Merrifield is known at the "Business Scientist" at Microsoft Corporation in Redmond, WA and is the author of "Rethink". He blogs about ways to rethink through getting out of what he calls "the 'how' trap".

Internet Future Driven by User Reputation Scores

by Hutch Carpenter

In a recent interview with EMC's Stu Miniman about the future of the web, I predicted that in 20 years, we'll all have online reputation scores. Little badges, numbers that communicate our level of authority, this sort of thing. And these reputations will have tangible impact.

Three different trends come together at some point in the future to make this happen. These trends have been underway for a while, but come together at some tipping point in the years ahead. Here's a visualization of the trends:


It's helpful to discuss each one, in the context of online reputations.


Rate performance of businesses

eBay, which went public back in 1998, played an important role in socializing the concept of people providing online ratings for online sellers. After we receive our purchase, we rate the seller. The collective wisdom identifies top sellers. Got your eye in that Donkey Kong game? Who are you most likely to trust...?


Amazon picked up on this, once it introduced third party sellers into the mix. You can see the percentage of positive ratings for the different sellers. Personally, I have paid premiums (i.e. higher prices) for the assurance that comes from a higher rated seller.

Yelp has taken this concept of rating a seller, and applied to offline consumer experiences. Want to get a burrito in San Francisco? You're likely to go with the highest rated restaurants.

These ratings make up for our lack of information about various providers of services. One could do a lot of online research, and asking friends, before buying. But these ratings do quite well as shorthand ways of assessing quality. They've made it easy to transact, without knowing someone ahead of time.

The rating ethos is expanding. On Facebook, you can 'like' people's entries. We 'love' music on Last.fm. We 'favorite' tweets. We 'digg' and 'buzz up' stories. Implicitly, we provide ratings when we share content via different social networks. Online engagement allows for this.


Migration of transparent work and information online

I found this recent Kaiser Family Foundation study fascinating. The amount of time kids spend online - smart phone, computer, television or other electronic device - is now at an all-time high. There's no denying this: future workers are going to be more accustomed to online engagement and information-seeking than any generation before. It's their lifestyle:


More generally, an important distinction from the web of the 1990s and early 2000s is that we aren't just reading and transacting. Individuals are providing the content. More every day, in fact. We have transferred some of the engagement and contributions from the offline world online. Actually, we're probably creating more content than we ever have,

For workers, the growth of Enterprise 2.0 continues. A key outcome of that? More and more work is making its way online. When it's available there, and not just in a Word document on the hard drive or email in an inbox, it's findable and usable by everyone. Your colleagues know quite well what the quality of your work and contributions are.

Do you think all of this stops, and we go back to message-relaying marathoners, smoke signals and carrier pigeons? No. Enterprise 2.0 and social media will continue their growth apace. And increasingly, this time spent online is through social media.

More and more people will be publishing their work, their ideas, their knowledge, their conversational bits, their creativity... online. It's just going to keep increasing.


Rely on social media for information

An emerging trend is the transition of where we seek information. Remember libraries, magazines and microfiche? Then the 1.0 websites where we got information? Then the portals that aggregated information from major media sites? Then search augmented all this information consumption?

Well, the next wave is to rely on our social connections to deliver interesting, relevant information to us. As was famously said by a college student in 2008:


"If the news is important, it will find me."


A recent Nielsen study confirms this growing tendency to use social media as a first stop to find information:


Admittedly, the leading social sites of today - blogs, Facebook, Twitter - have a ways to go before they become a large percentage of the population's first choice. And it'd help if Twitter could get their search working further back than a week or two.

But this survey and anecdotal evidence points toward an increased reliance on others to provide information to us.


Putting this all together

It's that last trend, still early in its cycle, that really points toward the development of formal, online reputations. When we started transacting online with complete strangers or small businesses we never knew, we needed a basis for understanding their credibility. It turns out, crowdsourced ratings are excellent indicators of quality. It also causes small businesses to be aware of the quality of their products and services.

In the years ahead, expect increased usage of social media for getting information and sourcing people, products and services. As an example, research firm IDC just released these survey results:


"57% of U.S. workers use social media for business purposes at least once per week. The number one reason cited by U.S. workers for using social tools for business purposes was to acquire knowledge and ask questions from a community."


As reliance on people for information increases, expect an increased need for knowing which strangers provide the top quality information. Note I said "strangers" there. One thing we will continue to do is to rely on our "friends" (social media sense of the word) for ongoing daily information. The people we connect with on the various social sites.

But that's the only way we will get information. Or make decisions. Great case in point? Google's real-time search results:


If innovation is the focus of your work, wouldn't you want to be included in those Google results? Here's the thing. Google doesn't just put any old tweet or other form of real-time content in there. As Google's Amit Singhal stated:


"You earn reputation, and then you give reputation. If lots of people follow you, and then you follow someone - then even though this [new person] does not have lots of followers, his tweet is deemed valuable because his followers are themselves followed widely," Singhal says. "It is definitely, definitely more than a popularity contest," he adds.


Note his words: "You earn reputation."

PR agency Edelman created a ranking algorithm called Tweetlevel, which analyzes people on the basis of influence, popularity, engagement and trust. Tweetlevel was recently used to create a list of the top analysts on Twitter. As the author of that post noted, one purpose for the list was to answer the question: "Should they spend their limited time interacting with analysts via twitter?" Presumably if you're an analyst in the Top 50, 'yes'.

Again, reputation being used for a defined purpose.

Ross Dawson wrote a good piece about the changes coming due to the increasing visibility of "people's actions and character." He notes the impact of reputation on seeking professionals for work:


"Many professionals will be greatly impacted by these shifts. The search for professional advice is often still highly unstructured, based on anecdotal recommendations or simple searches. As importantly, clients of large professional firms may start to be more selective on who they wish to work with at the firm, creating a more streamlined meritocracy.

The mechanisms for measuring professional reputation are still very crude, yet over the coming decade we can expect to see substantial changes in how professionals are found. This will impact many facets of the industry."


And Bertrand Dupperin sees a similar dynamic playing out internally:


"Use internal social networks to build a kind of marketplace that would put work capacity and competence on a given subject in relation with needs and allow those who can apply for an assignment instead of blind assignments to those who can't."


In a world where individuals emerge as important sources of information, products and services, people will need a way to break through the limited knowledge they'll have on any one person. Look for online reputations to emerge as a way to fill that gap.


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Hutch Carpenter is the Vice President of Product at Spigit. Spigit integrates social collaboration tools into a SaaS enterprise idea management platform used by global Fortune 2000 firms to drive innovation.

eBay France Tackles Challenger Head-on

by Yann Cramer

Visit eBay.fr and next to the traditional eBay homepage building blocks you will see a map of France that you can browse regionally to find local ads from sellers close to your home. If you fancy something, you can then contact and meet the seller face-to-face to see the item and agree a price. This looks completely at odds with eBay's core values of driving price transparency through online auctions and virtually connecting buyers and sellers across the global village. Are eBay prototyping a new offering? Not quite. Actually, they are merely reacting to an unexpectedly powerful local threat.


What happened?

Three years ago leboncoin.fr was created after observing that, while enjoying the online access to the dozens of offers that eBay can display for any given item search, a large number of customers would prefer to physically see and try the item before buying. The start-up made the bold assumption that there is enough truly local just-round-the-corner offer to continue meet the customer's appetite for choice while addressing the need to see the item and meet the seller. In some respect it was an old idea: local free-ad newspapers have existed for decades. Leboncoin used the associating skill of making old with new to connect that old idea with the power of online technology.

Today it boasts 9 million free ads on its website and over 2 million daily visits. Google Trends rank them above eBay.fr who have felt compelled to react by copying what they see as a potentially disruptive innovation in a field they themselves disrupted more than 10 years ago to become the dominant player.

Of course the threat is only local at this time and eBay as a global coorporation remains immensely more powerful. But leboncoin.fr business model could be replicated in any country to become a major headache for eBay.


What next then?

eBay may well end up buying leboncoin.fr but it cannot kill a business model that others could then easily resurrect to meet what appears to be a genuine customer need for proximity.

So, it may turn out that - even if they did not come up with the idea - eBay.fr copying of leboncoin.fr is some sort of rapid prototyping of a business model that we will see eBay roll out globally in the months to come.


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Yann Cramer is an innovation learner, practitioner, sharer, teacher. He's lived in France, Belgium and the UK, he's travelled six continents to create development opportunities with customers or suppliers, and run workshops on R&D and Marketing. He writes on www.innovToday.com and on twitter @innovToday.

Has Old Navy Righted its Ship?

by Steve McKee

It's a classic "When Growth Stalls" scenario: start with a fast-growing and profitable company; add an aggressive new competitor that begins to successfully woo the same customers; watch as the previously flourishing company loses its nerve, its focus, and its consistency, leading to languishing sales and lackluster results.

When Gap, Inc. launched Old Navy in 1993, the spare retail chain sporting affordable merchandise and wacky ads was an immediate hit. Rather than risk losing focus at brand Gap (which was near its zenith atop the retail world), parent company Gap, Inc. used Old Navy as a counterforce to the big discount stores that were trying to ride on Gap's fashion coattails by ripping off its designs.

Within four years Old Navy sailed past the billion-dollar revenue mark, accounting for nearly half of Gap, Inc.'s top line and some 40 percent of its profits. Offbeat commercials featuring has-been celebrities made the chain the talk of the retail industry, as well of teens and young families that comprised its core market.

Enter H&M, the trendy Swedish retailer, which opened its first U.S. store in 2000 offering discount apparel with a more fashionable edge. Fearing that H&M's success marked a sea change in the industry, Old Navy shifted its focus from the basics to more trendy, upscale mechandise. It didn't work. Sales fell by more than a billion dollars between 2006 and 2008, with last year's same store sales sinking an incredible 17 percent.

It was then that Gap, Inc. decided to do something about it. As the Wall Street Journal put it, "Returning Old Navy to its roots was the central theme of Gap's remaking of the brand." The Journal quoted Old Navy's interim president, Tom Wyatt, as he reflected on the brand's original recipe: "We got tired of it. The customer never did."

Eighteen months ago Old Navy recommitted to its original focus and began redesigning more than a thousand stores, hoping to leverage consumers' renewed frugality in this toughest of tough economies. Year-to-date 2009 revenue is up 1 percent, due largely to a third quarter same store sales increase of a healthy 10 percent (the first rise in five long years). Pardon the pun, but Old Navy seems to have righted its ship.

There's no guarantee that, having returned to its former course, Old Navy can count on smooth sailing. The retail industry is too dynamic to let any successful company alone. But Old Navy's experience is one more point of evidence that when even the most successful concept runs into a rough economy, a tough competitor, or some other external threat, destructive internal dynamics can turn it into its own worst enemy.

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Steve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

Amazon Gets an 'A' for Innovation

by Steve McKee

Retail sales are projected to decline this holiday season for the second year in a row, an occurrence unprecedented in the entire history of the federal government keeping statistics on such things. Online retailers will continue to face stiff pricing pressure, as they have for more than a year. Free shipping has become almost the ante in such a competitive environment.

That's why Amazon's shipping program, Amazon Prime, is so impressive. For a company that ships 100 percent of its products, finding a way to neutralize pressure on shipping costs is no small thing--especially when it's competing with Walmart, which offers its online customers 97 cent shipping on many products, or the option to pick up their orders at a nearby store for free.

Two million people have become members of Amazon Prime, paying $79 for automatic two-day shipping on all of their purchases. Not surprisingly, they tend to be Amazon's most frequent customers, which means they're still getting a pretty good deal. But the program helps ensure they'll turn to Amazon first when they have a new purchase occasion, and the numbers indicate they increase their spending with the company some 20 percent after signing up.

Just goes to show you that innovation isn't the exclusive purview of the R&D department. While many online retailers have thrown in the towel on shipping charges, Amazon found a way offset them while increasing order flow. The company took one of its biggest lemons and turned it into a refreshing beverage.

Makes me wonder about the bitter aspects of my industry and how how my company might do something to sweeten them up. What about yours?

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Steve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

When Wal-Mart Enters the Funeral Business

The Funeral Business is About to Change

by Idris Mootee

Will Amazon.com Follow? What's The Latest Innovation In The Funeral Business?

Some survey stated that the average person's greatest fear is having to give a speech in public. That's not it for me, but I am sure it is for many. I remember one guy telling a story about how he when he was put on stage in front of 800 people, the dead silence was like death itself. Giving a speech in public ranked higher in the survey than death (third on the list). So, you're telling me that at a funeral, most people would rather be the guy in the coffin than have to stand up and give a eulogy?

The first baby boomers are entering their mid-60s, and the death rate in the U.S. is expected to rise from 8.1 people per thousand in 2006 to 9.3 in 2020 (according to the National Center for Health Statistics). Yet the traditional funeral industry is hardly healthy: The Federated Funeral Directors of America, an accounting firm for independently owned funeral homes, found that in the past 20 years, its clients' profit margins have been cut nearly in half. Some 44% of funeral home directors, up from 28% in 2006, blame the increasing popularity of cremations and alternative burials for sinking profits. Some funeral homes have responded by more innovation such as themed funerals, from backyard barbecues to mini concerts.

The $11 Billion industry is forced to innovate when Wal-mart enters the business. Wal-mart has started selling coffins online at prices that undercut many funeral homes. People can choose from fourteen different models, from the $895 "Dad Remembered" steel model, to the exclusive "Sienna Bronze" model for $2,899. Why did Wal-mart decide to enter the coffin market?

Well, in fact this is a response to Costco's move to sell coffins online (not in bulk thank God) with delivery within twenty-four hours. I guess people don't want to wait for this category. I think it is a good idea. The funeral home industry is overcharging and often people don't know what these things should cost. With Wal-mart you need only to pay $1,000 versus three or four times more through a funeral home.

The funeral homes industry has reason to be concerned. I am sure their argument is these funeral homes can provide full service (like gas station) and ability to provide comfort and empathy, but it comes at a price. If it works for Wal-mart, the next one to join would be Target. They would invite Stella McCartney or Phillipe Starke to design caskets that costs just a little more, but with a lot more style. Amazon.com will follow with online customization that you can pick your favorite patterns or engraved your family crest on it. And for those creative types who are big thing art lovers, forget the traditional wooden box, you want something very special. A company called Crazy Coffins can pretty much order any design you want. There isn't a lot they can't make. The bespoke coffins are made by two carpenters and costs between $3,000 and $10,000.

And when you decide to spend more on a coffin, may be you should consider an upgrade to Louis Vuitton or Karl Lagerfeld. And for those die hard rock fans, they used to sell a KISS goodbye with the "Kiss Kasket". It is decorated with the logo and pictures of the band members; plus: it is waterproof. The Kiss Kasket went on sale in 2001 until 2006 and now it's no longer available from Kiss' website. I'd like to see a Beatles one.

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Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.

Smart 'R' Us?

by Steve McKee

Toys 'R' Us has faced its share of difficulties over the past several years. The company has had to contend with the likes not only of traditional competitors including Sears, KB Toys and FAO Schwarz, but bricks-and-mortar bruisers like Target and Walmart and Web behemoth Amazon. Not so long ago the company faced what appeared to be an existential threat from a very-well funded (and heavily advertised) "new economy" competitor, an online startup called eToys. There was a period when I thought Toys 'R' Us not only had seen its better days, but would have very few days left.

My how times have changed. Toys 'R' Us now owns--that's right, owns--the FAO Schwarz, eToys and KB Toys brands. And in a gutsy move that runs counter to the loss of nerve by which most retailers are still being tripped up, the company, which has fewer than 850 stores, will launch an additional 350 temporary locations during the upcoming holiday season. That means more rent, more people, more inventory, and more risk. It also means significant potential to gain market share.

In a Wall Street Journal interview, Toys 'R' Us CEO Gerald Storch said about the decision, "The current economic disruption provides an opportunity. The people who made their fortunes during the Great Depression where those that moved when everyone else was pulling back."

He's right, of course. The same Wall Street Journal article cites a CIT Group study which suggests that two thirds of retailers plan on hunkering down during the upcoming holiday season. While they make their toys easier to buy (with bigger discounts) but harder to find ( by stocking less inventory), Toys 'R' Us is positioning itself to be in the right place at the right time as harried shoppers look to cross items off their list (given the category, often impulsively). That will help the company not only pick up share, but protect its margins.

Rather than sitting around, wringing its hands about another potentially difficult holiday season, the Toys 'R' Us team has decided that disruptive times often call for disruptive measures. I predict their stockings will be full this year.

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Steve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

An Internet Innovation

by Drew Boyd

Imagine a Web site that detects a visitor's "thinking" style and "morphs" its look and feel to suit that visitor's style? Professor Glen Urban and his colleagues at M.I.T. describe an approach in the Sloan Management Review article, "Morph the Web To Build Empathy, Trust and Sales."

They collaborated with BT Group, a UK telecom company, to create a Web site that learns whether a person is more analytical versus holistic, and whether the person is more visual versus verbal in how they process information. Once the Web site learns this (based on a few preliminary clicks on the site), it adapts itself to present information in an optimal way:



This is an excellent example of the Attribute Dependency Template, one of five templates in the Systematic Inventive Thinking method of innovation. Attribute Dependency takes internal and external attributes of a product or service and combines them to create new dependencies (or break existing dependencies). With Web site morphing, for example, the two attributes that have been linked are:

• Web site appearance (an internal attribute)


• Visitor's Cognitive Style (an external attribute)

Dependencies can be passive, active, or adaptive. Passive dependencies are static - they don't change once they have been established. Active dependencies are dynamic - an attribute changes only when another one changes. Adaptive dependencies change the way they change. In other words, they learn as they go. Attribute Dependency is a great tool for creating "smart" products - those that know and adapt to user preferences or environmental conditions.

Does Web site morphing work? The MIT researchers report that Web-originated purchase intentions for BT's broadband service could increase 20% after morphing the site to match individual cognitive styles.

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Drew Boyd is Director of Marketing Mastery for Johnson & Johnson (Ethicon Endo-Surgery division). He is also Visiting Assistant Professor of Marketing and Innovation at the University of Cincinnati and Executive Director of the MS-Marketing program. Follow him at www.innovationinpractice.com and at http://twitter.com/drewboyd

Cashing in Online

Why do dead presidents have no value in the online world? In other words, why can I not pay cash online anywhere I want in the same way I can in the physical world?

For years now, when I am not busy serving paying clients, from time to time I bang the drum for my vision of making all online stores like brick and mortar stores where people can 'walk' in and pay cash. Now why is this so important for online retailers?

Online shopping is growing in popularity under current conditions, but it could grow even faster if the final barriers were eliminated. Enabling customers to pay cash online would eliminate barriers to online shopping posed by fears of:

1. Stolen credit card information

2. Identity theft

3. Invasion of privacy

Online merchants are missing out on shoppers who may never join the cashless society (UK statistics provided for illustration purposes) by not allowing shoppers to pay with cash:

1. 40% of the population doesn't have a credit card, yet 80% of online purchases are made with one

2. Not everyone can get a credit card - In 2000, 4 million 12-16 yr olds spent $6 billion

I saw an article in the Seattle Times about Amazon inking a deal with a partner to allow people to shop online and pay without a credit or debit card, and so I started to think "hurray!" - after four years somebody has finally realized the opportunity. I was so disappointed to find out that the 'solution' of serving people who do not want to pay with debit or credit card, was to allow people to pay directly from their bank account (ala PayPal) via a partner called BillMeLater.

As an entrepreneur and professional adviser, you would think I would be excited to hear that my vision still has not been widely implemented. I am excited, but at the same time I know that the true 'solution' is not workable for a new entrant.

What do you think?

@innovate