Thinking the Unthinkable

The New Leadership Imperative

by Holly G. Green

People ask me all the time what I consider to be the biggest challenge facing today's business leaders.

I don't even hesitate on this one. It's the automatic assumption by most business leaders that we still live in a fairly predictable world.

Think about it. Six months ago, who would have thought that Toyota would be in the position it is today?

Here we have one of the largest, most successful, most respected companies in the world. And now it faces a crisis that is not just destroying its hard-earned reputation, but could well put it out of business.

That's unthinkable! And yet it's happening right before our eyes.

Sales of Toyotas are plummeting. The U.S. government is launching a full-scale investigation into the company's business practices. And a tidal wave of lawsuits around the faulty floor mat/throttle issue is about to be unleashed.

If Toyota is found to be at fault, and if it turns out they had knowledge of the defective design and did nothing about it, punitive damages could run into billions of dollars. Not even Toyota could withstand that kind of a financial hit and still survive.

I'm not saying the unthinkable will happen. But the possibility that Toyota could go out of business in the near term is very real. And that's the kind of world we now live in.

Leading a business in this kind of environment requires a new way of thinking. Considering that most business leaders still view the world as fairly predictable, the question becomes:


How do we train ourselves to think differently?


The answer is simple - pause, think, focus, run.

• Pause. Make it a habit to back away from the day-to-day and evaluate what is happening outside your industry as well as inside.


• Think. Constantly challenge your beliefs and assumptions about what you know to be true about your customers, your markets, your industry and the way you do things inside your organization. Take nothing for granted.


• Focus. Identify opportunities to add value to your customers in ways that nobody else is doing. Identify significant initiatives that support leveraging those opportunities, and get and keep everyone in your organization clear on achieving them.


• Run. Implement quickly, with focus and flexibility, knowing in advance that your new initiatives will not unfold exactly as planned.
  Then repeat this process.

During the think phase, develop the habit of engaging in scenario planning. Ask questions like:


"What would happen if our biggest competitor suddenly went out of business? What is taking place in other industries or other parts of the world that we could use to transform our industry?"


Many companies do this once a year during the strategic planning process. In today's world, that will no longer suffice. When a company as large and seemingly invincible as Toyota can have the rug pulled out from under them so quickly, it's clear the old rules no longer apply.

Pondering the imponderable should become an everyday occurrence in organizations. To be a successful leader today, thinking the unthinkable must become a way of life.


Don't miss an article - Subscribe to our RSS feed and join our Continuous Innovation group!

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Five "Must-Haves" for a Strategic Plan

by Holly G. Green

Strategic planning methodologies are like shoes - one size does not fit all.

Some companies use a top-down, autocratic approach, where the plan gets created by a small group of senior managers and handed down to the rest of the organization. Some prefer a more democratic approach, with employees at all levels contributing their ideas and input to the plan. Most companies employ a hybrid of these two models.

The best approach for your company depends on several factors, such as size, industry, culture, type of workforce and management style. Regardless of which approach you choose, however, every strategic plan needs five key elements in order to achieve the intended results.

1. Mission. This defines why you exist as an organization. Specifically, it tells others (not just those in the organization) why you exist. Ideally, it describes some noble purpose that is both inspirational and aspirational, so that it instills pride in all those connected with the organization.


2. Guiding principles. Also called organizational attributes, these describe how you expect people to behave with each other and with other stakeholder groups. Guiding principles broadly define which types of behaviors are acceptable and which behaviors will not be tolerated. In particular, they describe how you will behave when faced with difficult situations or challenges.


3. Value propositions. These explain the value you provide to your organization's different stakeholder groups, both internal and external. For example, why do customers buy from you? Why do employees come to work for your organization? What kind of return can shareholders expect? How does your community benefit from the work you do?


4. Destination points. These identify where your organization wants to go within a specified time frame. This is perhaps the most critical element in the whole process because the more clearly you define your desired end state, the greater your chances of getting there.


5. Areas of focus/strategies. These define, in a broad sense, how the organization will get to where it wants to go. They are the three to five areas everyone should be focused on to get to the destination points. What cuts across several destination points; where should the majority of energy be focused; what must everyone keep in mind as they make investments in people and other resources; and, what guides you on what to do and not to do are the core questions answered.

These five elements form an essential foundation for the strategic planning process. If even one of these bedrock elements is missing, your chances for success become marginal at best.

Once these elements are in place, the next step involves action planning and breakthrough modeling to determine what it will take to get to where you want to go. Here is where you get down to the nitty-gritty to figure out what organizational capabilities (systems, tools, processes, people and technologies) are needed to reach your destination points. Effective strategic planning also requires that you set goals and define team and individual accountabilities, as these link the big picture to individual goals and competencies.

Ultimately, strategic planning is like a jigsaw puzzle - all the pieces must be in place in order to complete the picture. The mission and guiding principles inspire and energize employees, while creating pride and connection throughout the organization. The value propositions provide a touchstone for staying focused on what matters to stakeholders. The destination points provide clear goals and milestones that provide the big picture employees want and need. And the strategies/areas of focus create alignment and ensure that everyone in the organization is working toward the same goal.

Have you got your five must-have's in place? And is everyone clear on what they are?


Don't miss a post - Subscribe to our RSS feed and join our Continuous Innovation group!

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Are Best Practices Your Worst Enemy?

by Holly G. Green

When I speak to CEO groups, trade associations, and industry conventions, this is one of my favorite questions to ask.

Why? Because I love the reaction from the audience. They look at me like I'm nuts!

Questioning the sanctity of best practices in a roomful of corporate leaders and managers is like walking into a Boston Red Sox convention wearing a New York Yankees cap. Or walking into a Microsoft Corp. strategic planning session with an iPad in your hand. I might as well criticize mom, apple pie, and puppies.

But I dont ask the question merely to provoke a reaction from the audience. I ask it because it may prevent someone from going out of business.

In the 1980's, when Japan was eating our collective lunches in one industry after another, best practices played a critical role in helping American companies develop better quality products. We wouldn't be where we are today had our business leaders not embraced the concept of studying what works best and applying what they learned in their companies.

Over time, however, best practices have become somewhat of a sacred cow. We rarely (if ever) take the time to re-examine them and see whether they still make sense for current market realities. And in today's high-speed business environment, accepting anything on blind faith - even a best practice - can be fatal.

Let me clearly state that I am not advocating that business leaders do away with all best practices. Just the ones that get in the way of achieving your strategic goals and objectives. Here's one that I see all the time.

During strategic planning, a common best practice involves conducting research in your industry to determine where the opportunities and threats lie. Who could argue against this practice? After all, in order to plan the future you have to understand the present.

The problem is two-fold.

One, this kind of research is almost always conducted by experts in their field who bring a boatload of preconceived ideas and assumptions about the way the industry operates. Two, this practice fails to take into account that your next biggest competitive threat may come from an area not even remotely related to your industry.

Do you know anyone who uses a fax machine anymore? Fifteen years ago, the makers of fax machines didn't worry about a little blip on the horizon called broadband Internet. They were too focused on important industry issues like baud rates, printer quality, and the cost of replacement ink. They never even saw e-mail coming.

So when I work with clients on strategic planning, I strongly recommend they make a list of everything they absolutely know is true about their customers, markets, and industry. Then I suggest they have a non-expert research each and every one of those truths. For example, have the CFO look at customer data. Or have the sales manager look at purchasing practices. It's amazing what a fresh set of eyes can see!

Each researcher shares their information with the management team. They explain the approach they took, the data they found, and any recommendations they have. Then I ask, "What questions do you have as a result of your research? What do you believe is possible to do that you aren't currently doing?"

Why is it so important to have non-experts conduct the research?

Because experts are human, and as humans we don't believe what we see. Instead, we see what we already believe. We constantly seek to prove what we think is right, and as a result we miss critical data and limit our success by getting locked into ideas and assumptions that may no longer be true.

So here's a new strategic planning best practice: research what you know to be true, both inside and outside your industry, and do it with non-expert eyes. My guess is that 50 percent of your "facts" will turn out to be wrong, especially if they're more than two years old.

The business world changes very quickly these days, and so should your best practices. Otherwise they may well become your worst enemy.

Which best practices are getting in the way of your success?


Enjoy this post? Subscribe to our RSS feed and join our Continuous Innovation group!

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Innovation Perspectives - Purpose, Frequency and Responsibility

This is the fifth of several 'Innovation Perspectives' articles we will publish this week from multiple authors to get different perspectives on 'Who should be responsible (if anyone) for trend-spotting and putting emerging behaviors and needs into context for a business?'. Here is the next perspective in the series:

by Jeffrey Phillips

I've written before about the reactive nature of many businesses. It often seems there are more incentives to ignore signals in the marketplace and then conduct heroic efforts at recovery than to simply plan effectively and study trends and act accordingly. The purpose of today's topic is to examine whether or not trend spotting and scenario planning is important and valuable (hopefully already answered) and if trend spotting and scenario planning are important, what individual or team within your firm should be focused on this work, and how frequently it should be done.

First, let's put to bed the debate (admittedly a thin one) about whether or not your organization should track trends and try to understand likely future scenarios. The answer for most firms is a resounding "yes", especially given the increasing pace of change. In the past you might have been able to argue that change was slow and steady, and an occasional peak in the periscope was all that was necessary. As globalization increases and the pace of change increases, you need to be identifying trends and making sense of those trends consistently, or the disrupters will eat your market share for lunch. Your planning efforts can't assume the future looks a lot like the present, and also must look further out in time. You need to look further out in time because even though the demand cycle has sped up, many firms haven't improved their product or service development cycle, so if you only look a year or two into the future, but it takes 18 months to two years to get an idea through the pipeline, you are shooting behind the curve.

OK, let's assume for the sake of argument that you agree that trend spotting and scenario planning are valuable. Then the question becomes - who should spot and capture trends, who should develop scenarios and who should interpret the results? These questions need to be answered on two levels: at the corporate or business unit level, and at the product or service level.

Trend spotting should be underway, all the time, as a consistent activity by a wide range of people within your organization. Those trends should be reported to a central analyst (individual or team) who is capturing, recording and tracking trends. This model works at both the product/business unit level and at the corporate level. We at OVO emphasize this work at the corporate level, because work at a product or business unit level can too easily be focused too narrowly on a specific product or market or geography, and miss trends or disruptions from other sources. We'd rather see a number of people recognizing and reporting trends throughout the organization, centralized in some team at the corporate level, who capture, report and synthesize the trends, typically in four or five categories (demographic, technological, economic, governmental). One central repository of these trends reduces the "my trends are more accurate than yours" debates and should ensure a more all encompassing view of trends. Of course everything I've described can be replicated in a business unit or product line, with the awareness that these are often more narrowly tailored.

If we centralize this skill, what kinds of people are necessary to capture, analyze, report and synthesize trends? Anyone in the organization who reads, or interacts with customers or business partners, or who has an interest in what's happening or unfolding can capture and register trends. We've set up several systems like this where anyone can report trends. Additionally, the central team can also track and register trends. As trends are recorded and categorized, we can also begin to identify which are important and relevant for the business, and request more insight or investigation into some trends over others. As this is an ongoing activity, over time it becomes evident that some "trends" fade away while some are enforced. Periodically (we recommend twice a year) a team comes together to select trends and build scenarios about a 5 to 7 year distant future.

We tend to pick 5 to 7 year futures because in many firms the selection and implementation of a new idea and the rollout of a new product can take several years, so we want to get the product to market slight early rather than slightly late. With the pace of change as is currently experienced, trying to understand more than seven years into the future is really a crap shoot. Using a horizon less than three years is really not effective, as most concepts will be incremental.

Who should develop the scenarios? We believe these should be guided or facilitated by people who don't necessarily have a vested interest in the outcome. A scenario guided by a product manager is likely to reinforce his or her biases, since they have a stake in the outcome. Again a central innovation team acting as facilitators with a representatives from a product unit or business unit can mix the best of both worlds and ensure a relatively unbiased examination of several potential future outcomes.

Note that through all of this discussion we assume that this function exists as a continuous offering over time, not a discrete, start-stop program but a team that builds insights and skills and offers them to executives within the business. If you want the inexpensive, low hanging fruit of innovation, here it is. No where else can you get a great understanding of the near future and your opportunities and challenges for less cost. The only requirement after the scenario plan will be your ability to take action.


You can check out all of the 'Innovation Perspectives' articles from the different contributing authors on 'Who should be responsible (if anyone) for trend-spotting and putting emerging behaviors and needs into context for a business?' by clicking the link in this sentence.

---

Jeffrey Phillips is a senior leader at OVO Innovation. OVO works with large distributed organizations to build innovation teams, processes and capabilities. Jeffrey is the author of "Make us more Innovative", and innovateonpurpose.blogspot.com.

Who Killed Our Business?

by Paul Sloane

Most business managers go through the annual ritual of budgeting. We plan the next one or two years based on the actual results of the most recent year. We draw up a spreadsheet and plan line by line - sales revenues up 10% and costs held to a 5% increase means a modest improvement in profits.

We should have learned by now that this is a sterile process. The past is a poor guide to the future and its innovations. In 1972 the Club of Rome published "The Limits to Growth." It was a model that predicted what would happen to energy, food, population, environment, etc. It concluded that essential resources like oil would run out in the 1990s and that economic growth was unsustainable. It extrapolated the future based on the past. And it got it wrong precisely because the future is not like the past.


Blocking out innovative ideas

The planning straitjacket means that we are restricted to small incremental increases in revenues and we are squeezed on expenses. There is no scope for the radical improvements that the business so desperately needs. By thinking in terms of last year plus 10% we are blocking out big ideas. The motor car was not the horse-drawn carriage plus 10%, Amazon was not Barnes and Noble plus 10%, and the Smart Car is not your average sedan with an extra 10%. Each was a leap, an innovation, a different approach.

Nokia started as a wood pulp mill in Finland in 1865. It made paper products, rubber products and became an energy company before moving into consumer electronics and becoming the world leader in mobile phones. Virgin was founded by Richard Branson as a record label. It now offers a range of products in travel, entertainment, finance and communications. These successful companies did not get where they are today by modest incremental steps, but by combining efficiency with bold ventures into new arenas.


Who killed our business?

I use an exercise in my creative leadership workshops to shake people out of incremental thinking and planning. The team imagines that they are sitting in the room six years from now asking the question, "Who killed our business?" The premise is that some powerful force has put their company out of business. Individually and in teams they have to conceive of changes in technology, processes, fashion, competition or demographics that might completely replace their current business model.

There are many examples of how the unexpected has devastated businesses. Typewriter manufacturer Smith Corona was wiped out by word processing software on PCs. Polaroid was sideswiped by digital camera technology. MacDonalds has fallen victim to the rise of anti-corporatism and the power of the book, "No Logo." Downloading music on the Internet is hurting music companies. A loss of reputation demolished Arthur Anderson. Accounting scandals killed Enron and Parmalat. Laser eye surgery is a threat to makers of spectacles and contact lenses.

Starting with a blank piece of paper, people have to imagine a major new trend or approach which would eliminate them and at the same time meet the needs of their customers better. Once they have agreed on some possible scenarios they need to design ideal companies to exploit the new approaches. Instead of starting from today and planning forward, they start from the future and plan for the future.

You can aid the process by first discussing fashion trends, technology developments and demographic movements. The purpose is to startle people out of a complacent and comfortable view of the future and to consider instead a vortex of dangers and opportunities.

Spreadsheets are great tools for recording figures and for trying different assumptions in an existing model. But among all the many menu bars and commands in Excel there is no instruction for "use your imagination" or "conceive entirely new possibility." Try getting your team together and brainstorm some radical ideas. Develop scenarios that are imaginative but possible. Build some prototypes to test new products or business methods. Test them in the marketplace. An experiment will teach you far more than any spreadsheet. It is by systematically testing boundaries and pushing into new areas that companies like Nokia and Virgin succeed.


Conclusion

Of course every business needs a budget as a yardstick to measure against. But the budget is not a strategy for success or even for survival. Leadership means taking the business from where it is today to somewhere new and different. It means using imagination and innovation to design a better tomorrow.


Enjoy this post? Subscribe to our RSS feed and join our Continuous Innovation group!

---

Paul Sloane writes, speaks and leads workshops on creativity, innovation and leadership. He is the author of The Innovative Leader published by Kogan-Page.

Keeping Employees Informed - A Step-by-Step Guide

by Holly G. Green

In my last blog, I talked about the importance of communicating your strategic planning framework to employees at all levels of the organization. And not just once, but over and over again so that people never lose sight of the goals. I also noted that most employees prefer to hear this information directly from their boss or manager.

But face-to-face communication is not the only method for keeping people informed about where you are going and what you need to do to get there. Smart leaders use a variety of communication tools and methods to keep their most important messages top of mind with employees throughout the year.

Start by setting up a system to remind managers to discuss the goals and strategic planning framework elements with employees on a regular basis. Provide tools and templates managers and team leaders can use in monthly team meetings and in one-on-one conversations. This will take care of the face-to-face communication that employees want and need.

To complement this personal communication, develop some creative ways to keep information in front of everyone. For example:

• Include elements of the strategic planning framework in newsletters, e-mail messages, on your intranet, and within presentations used at team and company meetings.


• Look for things employees use on a daily basis and find ways to turn them into ongoing communication vehicles. Put your mission and values on notepads, paper cubes, and/or mouse pads.


• Develop table tent cards for the cafeteria tables, posters for public areas in the offices, and screen savers that list the company's three most important strategic objectives.


• Use paycheck stuffers to remind employees of the goals and update them on progress made towards those goals.


• Post a blog on the company intranet that explains your view of the goals and why they are important. Also, use the intranet to highlight examples of people who have achieved significant progress toward the goals and/or performed in a way that "lives" the company's values.


• Use Twitter to send daily or weekly "tweets" - short, concise reminders of what employees need to focus on or what winning looks like for your organization.

In addition to communicating with current employees on a consistent basis, make sure all new hires receive information about the strategic framework as part of their introduction to the company. For those components of your strategic framework that may change more frequently (such as operating metrics and significant initiatives), update all employees every time there is a change. In addition to what is changing, tell people why. Do this for changes to your innovation strategy and goals too!

There is almost no limit to the simple things you can do to communicate the most important messages in the company. Change it up every month so that people don't tune out your messages because they look like the "same old stuff" they always see. But just keep doing it!

I have yet to see an organization that over-communicates its goals. Instead we start running, and in our busy-ness forget that others aren't privy to all we are exposed to. When a change becomes evident and employees have not been informed, they are much more likely to fill the void with negative information, which is typically far worse than the truth.

Pausing to communicate frequently will save hours attempting to correct the myths, half-truths, and inaccurate information that spring up when you don't communicate enough. More important, it will increase understanding of and commitment to the goals you and your management team worked so hard to create.

What are some ways you keep employees informed?


Enjoy this post? Subscribe to our RSS feed and join our Continuous Innovation group!

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Welcome to 2010 - Now What?

by Steve McKee

The best thing about hope is that it springs eternal, especially at the beginning of a new year. 2009 is behind us, 2010 lies ahead and we have to believe that the coming year will be better than the last.

There is, of course, no telling. I recall in late 2008 looking forward to the calendar turning, hoping that with a new year the craziness of that fourth quarter would settle down and enable us to rebuild our economic prospects. Alas, the recession wore on. And on. The downturn has now lasted more than two years, and it simply has to be over. Doesn't it?

Time will tell. In the meantime, those of us who have any say over investment and job creation should go about our business with the intent of bringing about growth. We don't have any other choice, really - nor would we want to do anything else. As bad as last year was, we survived, and most of our companies are leaner and meaner for it. That's the silver lining.

So we get up, we go to work, we look ahead, we make decisions, we take risks. Just as we always have, and just as we always will. As I alluded to in my final FindYourNerve.com post, we are blessed to operate within the most productive, dynamic, and resilient economic system the world has ever seen. As each of us does our part, the whole will take care of itself.

Image Credit: Witness

---

Steve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

Magic Wand of Strategic Planning

by Holly G. Green

Imagine if Hogwarts, the mythical school of magic and sorcery in the Harry Potter books, taught strategic planning.

You could use enchanted mirrors to gaze into the future with unerring accuracy. You could conjure up potions for warding off evil competitors, recite charms for turning lousy products into perennial moneymakers, and chant incantations for rendering customers intensely loyal under your spell. Most important, you could learn how to wield the magic wand that makes all your business goals and aspirations come true.

Sound crazy?

We all know that magic wands only work in fairy tales and Hollywood movies. But you would be amazed at how many organizations subscribe to what I call the "And then a miracle happens..." approach to strategic planning.

With this approach, management invests a great deal of time and energy in identifying the destination (where the company needs to go), but puts almost no effort into determining how the company will get there. Instead, they believe that someone will wave their magic wand and the organization will suddenly get to where it wants to go.

In all my years of helping companies craft strategic plans, I have seen a lot of misguided thinking about the strategic planning process. But perhaps the most common fallacy is believing that just because you state a goal it will magically happen. Maybe at Hogwarts, but not in the real world!

Without question, creating a strategic plan takes hard work. But it represents only half the battle. To achieve the results laid out by the plan, you must also figure out how you will get there, which requires breaking down the process of reaching your destination into manageable steps. To facilitate this process, I recommend dividing the journey into three distinct phases: incremental, substantial, and transformational.

Start by comparing your destination to your current reality, noting any gaps between the two. Then identify what you will do incrementally different to achieve your goals. Over the next six months, what needs to happen in order to make progress toward your destination? What operating goals and strategies can you achieve in that time frame? What capabilities must be in place to support getting there?

During this phase, take into account how much change your organization can absorb without getting off track. Pay close attention to what it will take to increase the skills, knowledge, and competency levels to reach your destination. And if new systems and processes need to be created, how long will it take to implement them?

Next, identify what you will do substantially different to move closer to your goal. In other words, what needs to happen after the first six months and prior to your first 18 months of progress? Again, look at the operating goals and strategies you can achieve during this time frame, and what new skills, resources, capabilities, systems or processes will be required to achieve them.

Finally, identify what you will do that begins to achieve the type of transformational goals you set during the initial strategic planning process. What will happen after the first 18 months of progress? What operating goals and strategies can you achieve in that time frame? What capabilities must be in place to support getting there? Keep in mind that a lot may have happened since you first embarked on your journey. So make sure to build as much flexibility into this phase of the plan as possible.

In today's chaotic markets, nothing is more critical than figuring out where you need to go as an organization. Once you do, put away your magic wand and invest the time in creating your incremental, substantial, and transformational action plans. These will ensure that all your hard work during the initial planning phase doesn't go to waste.

Magic may rule supreme at Hogwarts. But in the real world, hard work, discipline, focus, and manageable action steps win every time.

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Do you have an innovation blind-spot?

by Mike Myatt

My experience with most executives and entrepreneurs is that they are totally committed to and focused on success. As a result, many of them tend to have a major blind-spot (translation: weakness) when it comes to the anticipation of set-backs. While this is understandable, it is nonetheless naive, and it constitutes a major flaw in the business logic of most strategic plans. This is so much the case that the most often overlooked aspect of strategic planning is adequately addressing contingencies as part of the planning process. As you get ready to usher in 2010, my suggestion is to take one final look back at your planning and assure that you've anticipated all the ways in which things can go wrong, and what you'll do when the inevitable happens...

The reality surrounding the success of any implementation is found by understanding that no matter how smart you are, things rarely go as planned. Those that plan in advance for changes in circumstances can adroitly address issues when they occur, while those who must deal with "unforeseen" circumstances don't tend to fare as well. Smart leaders view obstacles as a constant rather than a variable, and incorporate that thinking into their planning. Any well crafted strategy anticipates obstacles and factors in multiple "what if" scenarios. Leaders that wait until a problem occurs to deal with it place themselves and their organization at a huge strategic disadvantage.

The two most common outcomes created by a lack of contingency planning are: 1.) watching things grind to a halt as you scramble to evaluate options, and; 2.) having fewer options to assess based upon the new found time constraint. Speed is your friend and should be leveraged to your advantage. Speed is aided by anticipation and slowed by a lack thereof. Smart leaders will do everything in their power to keep a decreae in velocity from becoming a self imposed adversary due to a lack of contingency planning.

It is important to remember that contingency planning is a key to avoiding costly mistakes. In most cases your wins won't put you out of business, but your losses most certainly can. The three most critical items to focus on when conducting your planning are:

1. Insure that personal accountability is present on any major benchmark, milestone or deliverable.


2. Make sure that someone has identified the 5 worst things that could happen with any initiative, what steps can be taken to prevent their occurrence, and what measures will be taken to overcome them if they happen?


3. Make sure that advance warning signs for potential failures are identified and understood so that you have plenty of runway in front of you to implement your contingency plans.

Good luck and good planning.

---

Mike Myatt, is a Top CEO Coach, author of "Leadership Matters...The CEO Survival Manual", and Managing Director of N2Growth.

Predicting the Next Innovation

by Stephen Shapiro

Recently I returned from over two weeks on the road. I was in and out of five airports. As you go through security, the routine is always the same...

• Take off your shoes
  
• Take out your liquids
  
• Take out your computer

Why are we put through these security gymnastics?

On December 22, 2001, Richard Reid was caught with plastic explosives in the soles of his shoes. That's why we now have to walk barefoot through airports.

On August 9, 2006, two dozen people were arrested in the UK because they were plotting to bring liquid explosives on planes leaving Heathrow airport. Now we have to travel with miniature shampoos, shave creams and toothpastes.

Computers are scanned because, well, that's the obvious place to look. I guess.

What do these have in common? For the most part, the security scans we now endure were due to cleverness on the part of terrorists. Rarely are we subjected to scans that are due to the cleverness of government agencies.

Are there ways to easily smuggle weapons on planes in spite of our increased security? Of course. Nearly every time I pass through a metal detector, I have metal collar stays in the dress shirt I am wearing. Although the detector never beeps, these could easily have been turned into razor sharp weapons. Does this mean that next week I will have to travel topless through the airport? Good thing I have been working out.

Give me 15 minutes and I could rattle off dozens of other, more sinister ways to smuggle weapons on board.


Reactionary Innovation

This is a reactionary approach to business.

The current financial situation also demonstrates a reactionary approach to business. Enron has a meltdown. What should we do? Implement ridiculously stringent rules like the Sarbanes-Oxley act. Our financial institutions start to falter. OK, let's spend $700 billion of the taxpayers' money to sort out the mess.

I'm not saying that these rules and legislation are good or bad (or ugly). That's a conversation for another time. But I do find it ironic that the "big ideas" always seem to come in response to some tragedy. They are rarely proactive.

What does this have to do with innovation? Everything.

Most organizations use creativity to help them determine what to do next. They brainstorm ideas, select the best solutions, and then implement the most promising ones. Creativity is used to determine what your company or organization will do next.


Predictive Innovation

But in these rapidly changing times, creativity can be equally (if not more) valuable for determining what the marketplace and your competitors will do next. Or, if you are the government, it may help determine what your banks and terrorists will do next.

When is the last time you had a brainstorming session where you asked the following questions?

• What are we most afraid our competition will do to us?
  
• Who is not a competitor now, but might be in the future?
  
• What shift might happen in the buying habits of our customers that may make our product/service less appealing?
  
• How can the sagging economy help our business?
  
• What emerging products or services may make our business irrelevant?

The list of outside-in questions can be endless - and valuable.

In your next brainstorming session, try the following:

• Brainstorm your own list of questions, building on mine above.
  
• Determine which ones you want to tackle first.
  
• Brainstorm, using a variety of creativity techniques, to identify "possible" outcomes.
  
• For those which are deemed plausible, brainstorm a list of "triggers" for each. These are market conditions that tell you that the given scenario is moving from "possible" to "plausible."
  
• Set up a corporate "radar" system to help monitor external conditions. Have everything in place such that you can implement critical ideas when market conditions dictate.

This approach blends creativity with scenario-based planning. It helps you move from reactive solutions to proactive solutions. And in today's volatile world, this might just be the key to your long-term survival.

---

Stephen Shapiro is the author of three books, a popular innovation speaker, and is the Chief Innovation Evangelist for Innocentive, the leader in Open Innovation.

10 Lessons Learned from 2009

by Holly G. Green

Wow, what a year!

2009 has come and gone, and many of us are taking a huge sigh of relief. Going through one of the worst recessions in U.S. history will certainly take the wind out of your sails. But we appear to have weathered the worst of the storm. And while the economy might not rebound with the speed and vigor we would like, it at least appears to be heading in the right direction again.

So what did we learn from the trials and tribulations of the past year? And how can we apply those lessons going forward? Here are 10 things I believe that leaders need to do differently to position their businesses for success in 2010.

1. Get used to the likelihood there will be no normal anymore. The old business world that most of us knew and loved went away with the recession, and it's not coming back. To adapt to today's business realities, question all your beliefs and assumptions, get comfortable with uncertainty, and adjust your expectations. For most, the new 'normal' will be slow and sustained growth rather than a hockey-stick curve and it will continue to surprise us.


2. Break the rules. If you're not breaking rules on a regular basis, your customers and markets have probably already left you behind. The new rule for today's chaotic markets is to constantly challenge the status quo. Don't automatically assume that what made you successful in the past will continue to make you successful in the future.


3. Recognize and minimize your "MSUs." We all constantly MSU (make stuff up) about our company, industry, and markets. During the strategic planning process, put everyone's beliefs and assumptions out on the table and ask, "What do we think we know to be absolutely true about our customers, competitors and markets? Is it still true? If not, what has changed and how do we need to respond to that change?" Get data and question your long standing beliefs constantly.


4. Embrace social media. Embracing social media can be a real competitive advantage. In addition to instantly connecting you with customers, social media enables you to "mindshare" with industry peers, demonstrate thought leadership, recruit talent and more. Study the social media habits of your customers, and use the appropriate tools to make them part of your community.


5. Expect more transparency. With the advent of social media, you can no longer control public perception by limiting information about your company and products. When you withhold information, today's bloggers, twitterers and forum posters will make it up for you. The next generation of market leaders will excel at using social media to create transparency and build trust with their key stakeholders.


6. Communicate to fill the void. Today's employees are beset with doubts, uncertainties and fears about their jobs. If you don't tell them what is going on, they will fill the void with rumors and misinformation, usually negative. Constantly let employees know where the organization is going and what your plan for winning is. In today's world, you can't over-communicate.


7. Encourage strategic thinking. Strategic planning involves a formal process whereby senior management peers into the future and charts a course of action for the organization. Strategic thinking occurs when the entire organization begins to act in concert with the strategic plan. Teach your people to anticipate opportunities and threats while managing the day-to-day tasks that fall within their scope of responsibilities.


8. Make innovation a way of life. Innovation needs to become an integral part of the way you do business, not just a one-time event. Constantly challenge the way you do things, even when they have always worked well. Strive to create new products, services and ideas that have real value for stakeholders. Look for different and novel ways to deal with ongoing challenges. Constantly seek to implement new and better ways of achieving results.


9. Slow down to go fast. In times of uncertainty, prepare to pause, focus, and plan. Learn to anticipate the unanticipated by making scenario planning part of your daily routine rather than an afterthought when plans don't pan out. Take the time to consider multiple perspectives and engage others who have diverse views. This may feel like slowing down, but will actually help you get where you want to go much faster.


10. Get back to basics. When everything around you diverts you into complexity, get back to basics. Make strategic planning a way of life in your organization. Use a strategic planning framework to drive what you do and where you focus your energies. Constantly check for internal and external forces that may impact where you're going, what you need to do and how you need to do it. Organize your day around achieving your destination, and focus on informing, inspiring and engaging others in getting there.

Those are my top 10 tips for success in 2010. I'd love to hear what you plan to do differently going forward.

Here's wishing you clarity, focus, and great success in the New Year!

---

Holly is the CEO of THE HUMAN FACTOR, Inc. (www.TheHumanFactor.biz) and is a highly sought after and acclaimed speaker, business consultant, and author. Her unique approach to creating strategic agility, helping others go slow to go fast, will change your thinking.

Keys to Growth for 2010

by Mike Myatt

While today's post is short, it truly merits the attention of anyone still grappling with 2010 budget concerns. I'm going to share something with you that you might not want to hear, and quite frankly, something that will likely send your CFO straight into apoplexy. You don't grow a business by shrinking it. The key to corporate growth is not to fall into decline; hopefully not by default, but certainly not by design. If your 2010 plan is one that involves constriction, contraction, shrinkage or retraction, you should note that this is not what your clients and prospects are looking for.

Do you think your clients will be impressed that you're cutting staff, shrinking marketing budgets, eliminating service lines or any other item that they perceive as a limiting factor in your ability to help or add value? Know this: your clients and prospects will never see any form of bunker mentality as being beneficial to them. One of the great business myths is the theory of "remaining flat" - it simply is not possible. A business grows or shrinks - it gains ground on competitors, or loses ground to them. So my question to you is this: What are you specifically going to do in 2010 to better serve your clients, to continue acquiring and developing talent, to build your brand, and to grow your business? General George C. Patton said it best: "Never defend, always attack."

---

Mike Myatt, is a Top CEO Coach, author of "Leadership Matters...The CEO Survival Manual", and Managing Director of N2Growth.

Five Minute Rule helps get intimidating projects done

by Matt Heinz

We all have big, intimidating projects on our plates that, frankly, are a little scary. They either feel like a lot of work, or you're not exactly sure how to tackle them. So, we hem and haw and avoid them.

I've found that a fairly simple trick can help me get more of those projects done. It takes just five minutes.

When I'm facing a big project or task, I tell myself I'm going to spend five minutes getting it started, and that's it. I'm either going to just do five minutes worth of that task, or just spend five minutes planning how to tackle it.

The secret of the Five Minute Rule is that I almost always keep going, blow past the five minutes, and get the task done in far less time than if I would have kept procrastinating.

It's those five minutes that demonstrate how relatively quickly & easily the task can actually get done. If you get five minutes of momentum, sometimes that's all you need to keep going to the finish. If you use the five minutes to brainstorm, it makes the task far less intimidating and easier to get done right away.

Find something on your list right now and give it five minutes. Let me know what happens next.

---

Matt Heinz is principal at Heinz Marketing, a sales & marketing consulting firm helping businesses increase customers and revenue. Contact Matt at matt@heinzmarketing.com or visit www.heinzmarketing.com.

Innovating into the Future

by Jeffrey Phillips

There's an interesting and difficult conundrum associated with innovation based on the calendars and timeframes of most organizations. While many organizations want innovation, they are not able to innovate beyond their "headlights", which to me means the span of time into the future they are willing to investigate.

Most businesses operate in approximately three timeframes: the quarter, the annual plan, and timeframes beyond one year out. These timeframes are dictated by the financial markets, not by any specific ebb and flow of business, and these time frames don't align to or account for the interworkings of the organizations. The first timeframe, 90 days, is dictated especially to publicly traded firms. However, any firm of any size will frankly tell you that little can be changed in a quarter. The next time frame is the fiscal year, which is dictated again by the financial community.

Note that neither of these timeframes has anything to do with the internal workings or operations of the business, especially when it comes to innovation. If we are honest with ourselves, we'll be willing to admit there are at least three phases of innovation and new product development: idea generation and selection, new product development and commercialization and launch. In most organizations new product development and commercialization will rarely take less than 18 months to two years. Adding in the timeframe to identify opportunities and generate ideas, it's easy to see that an idea generated today in most firms won't be commercialized in less than 2 to 2.5 years.

This is where the concept of innovating beyond the headlights comes into play. If we have an idea to product or service lifecycle of 2 to 2.5 years, then we need a planning cycle and an investigation cycle of at least that length, if not more. If the business is not identifying opportunities 3 to 5 years in the future and has a idea to product lifecycle of 2 to 2.5 years, then it's almost impossible for the firm to ever create a truly disruptive product, since it's development time is longer than its runway. It's not as if we compete in a market that has no other insightful, aggressive competitors and new entrants. Consumers aren't simply going to wait for your firm to unveil products and services that have already been launched by competitors.

No, innovators need to identify opportunities that are further into the future, and that will cause consternation by many of the individuals tied to the quarterly plan or the yearly plan. Innovators need to push their visions at least three to five years into the future to identify emerging opportunities or needs, and begin to develop products and services to meet those needs. Given the elapsed time to bring a new product to market, even a three year planning horizon is probably too short.

Forecasting opportunities that are less than two years into the future doesn't account for the internal development processes or the ability of competitors or disrupters to enter the market. Even incremental innovation is timeconsuming, so we may as well swing for the fences on a regular basis.

If these postulates hold true, then there are two conclusions. First, we need to make our idea to product or service launch process more compact and more efficient, so that we can identify opportunities and launch new products and services faster. In addition, we need to extend our trend spotting and scenario planning further into the future, to understand opportunities and provide enough runway so that we can create compelling and unique offerings and solutions as the market becomes aware of the needs.

---

Jeffrey Phillips is a senior leader at OVO Innovation. OVO works with large distributed organizations to build innovation teams, processes and capabilities. Jeffrey is the author of "Make us more Innovative", and innovateonpurpose.blogspot.com.

Five Ways to Prepare for 2010

by Matt Heinz

I can't believe it's already December, and 2009 is almost gone. That means it won't be long before the holidays are over, and we're staring at a brand new month, quarter and year. Before January hits you unprepared, spend time in December both catching up and getting ready. Here are five specific things to get you started:

1. Read

• That backlog of blog posts sitting in your RSS Reader? The stack of magazines on your desk? Dig into them. You don't need to read every single article, but take time this month to catch up a bit on the reading you've wanted to do. I guarantee you'll find inspiration many times over.

2. Learn

• What skill have you wanted to learn? What new sales or marketing strategy have you wanted to get smarter about before testing for your organization? There's something youve been putting off, because you simply don't have time. What if you devoted the next 30 days to reading, practicing and testing that skill? How could that make you smarter and more successful in 2010?

3. Brainstorm

• Pick a handful of important problems or challenges. They can be things facing you personally or professionally, individually or with a group. Feel free to brainstorm on your own, but also pull friends, family or colleagues (whichever group is most appropriate) into a room with a white board to help. Even if you just take 30 minutes (our team takes as little as 10 minutes depending on the topic), with a bit of mental isolation and focus, you'll come up with something highly useful.

4. Secret Shop

• Which competitors - big or small - are creeping up on you? Which ahead of you might be within reach? How can you dig deeper, directly, into how they do business to learn what they're doing well, where they're weak, and what you can do differently to accelerate past (or further away from) them in the coming months?

5. Plan

• You've probably done some of this already for 2010, at least for your organization overall and/or for your department. But have you done it for yourself? For your career, or other professional and personal goals? What focus areas and milestones will be important to you in 2010, and what do you need to do starting in January to achieve them? Then, what do you need to do in December to hit the ground running?

---

Matt Heinz is principal at Heinz Marketing, a sales & marketing consulting firm helping businesses increase customers and revenue. Contact Matt at matt@heinzmarketing.com or visit www.heinzmarketing.com.

Getting Ready for 2010 - Real Life Planning Successes

by Mike Brown

I'm a proponent of spreading strategic thinking broadly in a company and not readily handing off strategy development to outside parties exclusively. Yet I've been a part of many examples where an outside perspective helped move strategy development ahead much more quickly.

Here are several examples you may be facing where it's good to get outside expertise:


Turning Talk Into a Plan

A small subsidiary's three-person management team was told to get a plan in place to show corporate management the company's direction. They had no planning process and only ten business days to deliver a comprehensive strategic plan. We brought in the Brainzooming process to develop an innovative strategic plan in one day. The output couldn't be simply a bunch of ideas nor could it be only a rote plan with little strategic insight.

Structuring a day-long session using question-based exercises allowed the team to answer questions about the business, participate in exercises to stretch strategic perspectives on competition and opportunities, and come back the next morning to make people and timing decisions on a tight plan to share with the operating president.

As non-planners, they wouldn't have been able to put together a coherent business plan in ten days, but they did understand their business and the general direction they needed to head. We combined their deep knowledge with exercises and facilitation allowing us to challenge and create a strategic flow from their answers. We delivered the best of both worlds - a structured plan reflecting their intent for the business with sound strategic logic and more innovation than they'd have ever brought to it alone. This experience demonstrated the clear benefit of the emerging Brainzooming process.


Stimulating a Management Team that Knows It All

We rolled into town to help a really experienced senior management team tackle annual planning. Because of their tenure and smarts, they knew the company inside-out. This knowledge rendered them ill-suited to solving a long-term growth challenge: as every idea was uttered, they "knew" why it wouldn't work for the brand.

During the course of a day-long planning session, I created a new exercise on the fly based on a brand in a very different industry sharing the same fundamental characteristics of our client. I asked the group to suggest how this other company could address the same challenge they were facing. All of a sudden ideas started flowing non-stop. We were able to take the concepts and strategically apply them to their business.

Left on its own to think strategically, the management team would never have reached an alternative look at its business. An outside perspective, unburdened by excessive detail was critical to identifying an analogous situation, providing an entree for innovative strategic thinking and implementation.


Doing the Thinking for a Distracted Management Team

We had a pre-scheduled planning follow-up with a management team who, since our initial session, had been charged with exploring a major brand contraction. Unable to convince them their new assignment should be the focus for our session, we instead spent time addressing the status quo scenario. Unfortunately, the status quo wasn't likely or compelling enough to command much of their attention and strategic creativity.

Frustrated by the lack of intensity while addressing the status quo, we wrapped the effort early. We told them we'd work on the status quo scenario, delivering 200 prioritized, fleshed out ideas and concepts within 3 days. Using several creativity techniques during the flight home, we generated really strong creative concepts for the status quo or, with some modification, for the alternative scenario also.

This was a great example of the importance of a balanced group in doing the best strategic thinking. The client's management team had business experience and functional knowledge, but was sapped of any creative energy it ever had. Bringing in outside talent for a creative spark was needed to turn lackluster thinking into vibrant, implementable ideas.

---

Mike Brown is an award-winning marketer and strategist with extensive experience in research, strategy, branding, and sponsorship marketing. He's a frequent keynote presenter on innovation and authors Brainzooming!

Managing the Unknowable, Unforecastable and Unplannable

This Is Not What They Teach In Business Schools

by Idris Mootee

I don't think anyone will disagree with me when I say that the future is unknowable and no one can accurately predict the future with any level of confidence. I remember when we were working to support the global launch of Lisa and had no idea whether it would take off or not. It was a long shot marketing the Lisa to corporate IT folks to convince them to switch to Apple back then, and many are still not convinced today. Does it mean we should just give up managing the future? What about the future of Kindle? Their predicted sales are pegged at $1.2 Billion and analysts think they will become the iPod of ebooks, but how likely is it that this will happen?

For any innovative product or service, there are so many unknowns and any forecast seems to be an impractical exercise. Strategic planning is often used to describe operational planning. Real strategic planning is about planning for the future. Do you think that some planning exercise can effectively forecast future sales of innovative new products without seeing what the competitive landscape will look like in the future? To do strategic planning, let's first admit that there is no way to know what the long-term future looks like and that any vision you have may not be relevant at all.



So how do you manage the unknowable and unforecastable? But at the same time, make many long-term decisions? This is the big paradox of organizations and management. We need to organize in a way to coordinate many parts of the organization to function and to create some stability in the day-to-day running of different units. The art is for existing structures and processes to co-exist with the flexibly (and sometimes instability) to adapt to changes. Some believe senior executives or the board should set the direction of the company and control all strategic directions and resource allocation. In fact, the better approach is to set the overall directions and then create favorable conditions and flexible architectures to support learning and innovation by middle management.



A friend of mine (a senior exec with a bank) uses the analogy that no matter how smart a person is or even if the person doesn't sleep, he or she can never out-think or out-innovate tens of thousand middle managers if each only spend 5 minutes a day thinking about new ideas to improve performance or new ways to serve customers better. How true?

It is far more important to expose senior and middle manages to new mental models, unarticulated customer needs and future industry scenarios that together form new maps and perspectives. This way you can power up their collective imagination and stimulate creative dialogues.



I've seen so many flaws in so called 'strategic plans' and many fail to demonstrate (let alone guarantee) the millions of dollars in new revenue or savings they promise. It is easy to wave the words 'quality', 'growth' or 'innovation' about casually like a magic wand to justify investments, without bothering to define what the possible futures are. I will write more in the next few weeks on how to avoid the mistakes of 'strategic planning'. Strategic planning that's rooted in the assumption that the past dictates the future, is merely a limit of the planner and not the plan.



Anyone who is familiar with strategy frameworks like the Balanced Scorecard/Strategy Map methodology from Kaplan and Norton knows the importance of Leading Indicators: Metrics that are forward-focused rather than simply stating past performance. Leading Indicators are sometimes disguised as 'Weak Signals' and that's why it is more difficult to interpret.

I believe strategic innovation and strategic planning are two very different (not mutually exclusive) approaches that people mix up. Strategic innovation is a process to discover new value through new ideas while the strategic planning process is based on what happened and what to respond to. Without something happening, planners cannot plan further. In most cases, the strategic planner assumes business as usual. It is hard to find business as usual today. And often they underestimate the magnitude of change and disruptions. Their job is not to read and interpret 'weak signals'. That's why innovation, strategy and operations are three different functions and require very different skill sets.


"Looking back, it is clearer to me now that these plans - for all their seemingly tight, logical connections between mission, belief, goals, actions, responsibilities, and evaluation - were like beautiful but badly leaking boats."

- Mike Schmoker

---

Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.

Need for Speed

by Mike Myatt

The need for speed is something that all CEOs need to keep at the forefront of their minds. In the world of athletics there is widely accepted principle that states: "Speed Kills." In most sporting events speed will prevail over strength, and often times speed will end-up being the deciding factor between victory and defeat. As important as speed is on the field of play, it has been my experience that it is even more important in the world of business. While there is little debate that speed can create an extreme competitive advantage, it is not well understood that the lack of speed can send a company (or an individuals career) into a death spiral. Agility, fluidity, decisiveness, commitment, and focus all lead to the creation of speed. In today's blog post I'll discuss why you should feel "The Need For Speed."

General George S. Patton said it best: "A good plan violently executed today is far and away better than a perfect plan tomorrow." The pursuit of perfection is one of great adversaries of speed. In fact, at the risk of being controversial I’m going to take the position that perfection does not exist. I hate to break it to you, but those of you who regard yourselves as perfectionists simply exhibit perfectionistic tendencies in an unrealistic attempt to achieve what cannot be had. The pursuit of perfectionism does not result in an increase in quality, but it will result in time delays, cost overruns, missed deadlines and unkept commitments. I would suggest that rather than seeking what cannot in most cases ever be achieved that it makes more sense to seek the highest standard of quality that makes economic sense relative to the constraints of an ever shifting marketplace.

Time to face the facts...we live in a digital world where the speed of engagement, response, interaction, communication, delivery etc., was once a unique competitive value proposition, but is now a requirement for survival. There are those that would argue that speed in synonymous with undisciplined decisioning, but I would caution you against confusing speed with reckless abandon...I'm a big proponent of planning, assessment, analysis and strategy, but only if it is concluded in a timely fashion. 'Analysis Paralysis' leads to missed opportunities and failed initiatives. Speed is your friend...embrace it...leverage it...win with it.

Earlier in my career I served as Director of Internet Strategy for what was at that time the world's largest web-enablement firm. While serving in that position I coined the term 'e-velocity' which we trademarked and used to describe the influence that technology was having on the pace at which business had to be conducted in order to remain competitive. It used to be acceptable to take 12 to 18 months to roll-out an initiative, but in today's world you better be able to do it in 90 days or it will be obsolete before it gets to market.

When I first started in business it was usual and customary to produce 5 and 10 year business plans, but today I work off of rolling 90 day tactical business plans. The latest advances in Business Process Management (BPM) have seen a reduction in the planning and budgeting cycle from 120 and 90 days to 45 days. But, is 45 days good enough? How many days constitute a responsive cycle time? Many believe the right number is between 5 and 10 days. Why is cycle time reduction important? Because shorter planning and budgeting processes facilitate greater flexibility and responsiveness.

In today's competitive business environment you must quickly be able to assess risk and make timely decisions. You cannot be successful being guided by fear and hesitation. When in doubt, remember that "Speed Kills" and that "he who hesitates is lost."

---

Mike Myatt, is a Top CEO Coach, author of "Leadership Matters...The CEO Survival Manual", and Managing Director of N2Growth.

It's Not Too Late - What have you done this year?

by Rowan Gibson

Tom Peters once posed this question at a seminar I attended back in the early 1990s. I remember it vividly. Sitting there at one those big round tables in the ballroom at Amsterdam's Okura hotel, Tom's question connected with me like a left hook from Mike Tyson. I vigorously scribbled those words on the notepad in front of me and sat there for a few moments staring at them. What had I actually done with one whole precious year of my life? And, more to the point, what exactly was I going to do with the next one?

When I left the Okura hotel that cold December day and headed home, I made a passionate resolution: I was going to start writing the book that had long been on my mind but not on my agenda. It turned out to be one of the major turning points in my life. That book, "Rethinking the Future", became an international bestseller sold in over 20 languages and the launch pad for my public speaking career. It also gave me the great honor of working with (and getting to know) some of the smartest business thinkers of all times – luminaries like Warren Bennis, Gary Hamel, Charles Handy, John Naisbitt, Michael Porter, CK Prahalad, Peter Senge, and Alvin Toffler, among others.

As another year comes to an end, and we contemplate what lies ahead for us all in 2010, I challenge you to think about Tom's question. Sit down and write an annual report - not for your company or department, but for your own career and personal life. Doubtless you have been very busy throughout this year so far doing all kinds of... er, 'stuff'. But can you list your most 'stunning' accomplishments so far in 2009? Have you made a significant difference this year in your organization or, better yet, in your field? Have you started working on that book, or blog, or pet project, or new business you've been wanting get off the ground? Did you do something - anything - that could one day be legendary? What will your children or your grandchildren boast to their friends about you? Molly Sargent, OD consultant and trainer, asks a powerful question: "Have you invested as much this year in your career as in your car?"

Sometimes it takes an exercise like this to jolt us out of our complacency and get us to make those hefty adjustments to our careers and our lives that we know we should be making but somehow haven't yet gotten around to. So, having done the self assessment looking back at 2009 so far, the next challenge is to look ahead to 2010. What are you going to do next year that could meet the test of being truly 'Wow'? What projects, goals, values, are you going to adopt a 'fanatic's posture' toward? How exactly do you plan to make a dent in the universe?

Most people start the year with some kind of New Year's resolution. The usual suspects include "going on a diet", "joining a fitness club" or "reducing my personal debt". But how many of those resolutions ever get beyond January? How many even get off the starting block? I believe the reason so few resolutions ever go anywhere is that most of us are aiming too low. Instead of resolving to lose a few pounds before Easter (how inspiring is that?), why not aim to create an innovative new diet that will become the basis for a bestseller that will turn you into the next weight-loss guru? Instead of aiming to reduce your personal debt, why not aim to start building the business that will eventually make you completely debt-free and financially independent?

The greatest piece of advice I ever followed (which came from my friend, Al Ries) was just one single word: "focus". Make a list of all the things you will inevitably end up doing next year unless you intervene. Then make a list of what you would truly love to do, and where you would love to be. Throw the first list away and start crossing things off the second list one until you get down to just one big career-changing or life-changing goal. Then resolve to focus all your energy in 2010 on that one big thing and treat all else as secondary. Pursue your goal tenaciously as if it's the only thing worth doing for the rest of your life. View it as a grand adventure. Before I wrote one single word of Rethinking the Future, I bought myself a T-shirt and had Helen Keller's famous mantra printed in large red letters on the front: "Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing." It certainly worked for me.

Or as advertising legend Leo Burnett once put it, "When you reach for the stars you may not quite get one, but you won't come up with a handful of mud either."

If you're gutsy enough to follow your dream next year, and to work like hell to make it happen, I salute you. May 2010 bring you and your family wealth, health and happiness.

Or even better, 2009 isn't over, yet...

---

Rowan Gibson is a global business strategist, a bestselling author and an expert on radical innovation.

Scenario Planning Back in Fashion

Developing Robust Strategy with 'Wild Card' Scenarios

by Idris Mootee

Every executive wants to know what the future will be like or what will likely to happen to their industry and what the most disruptive forces are that will impact their bottom line or even survival. That's why we use 'Wild Card' to paint scenarios. Wild card scenarios are in theory, things that are not likely to happen, but most likely to create the highest impact and disruption should they occur. The idea of wild card scenarios is not to predict or calculate which scenario will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises that could occur.


I wonder how many banks had the current financial crisis as part of their wild card scenario. Did someone paint this scenario in advance of the actual financial crisis? Or did anyone ever paint a scenario of an African American US President the last 20 years? Or the influence of social networks? Any good forecasters and long-range planners recognize that there are innumerable plausible futures to consider in any industry context. No finite set of future scenarios can ever hope to completely cover all possible surprises. You can develop a set of wild cards, but might be missing the 'wild wild cards'. So how do we do this? Here's a 5-minute crash course.



The art of generating scenarios must include assumptions about what will (and won't) occur - what trends are likely to continue, what changes are likely to occur, what events are not likely to take place, etc. From a small, reasoned set of assumptions, a set of scenarios can be developed to address the remaining uncertainties and can be used for their intended purposes. Whether you apply it in the media industry or auto industry, it is by nature a strategic creative exercise. In the long range planning arena, assumption-based scenario exercise is basically built on the notion that a set of wild card scenarios should be developed for purposes of making more robust the plans that have been developed. It is a mechanism to test your strategic plan. Those plans have made assumptions about the future, not all of which are certain to come depending on many external factors.



The number one purpose of the wild card scenarios is to help strategic planners develop signposts for indicating that an assumption is being violated, shaping actions to keep the assumption from failing (to the extent possible), and hedging actions to prepare the organization in the event an assumption fails. Remember that wild card scenarios are highly unlikely to happen. But, what makes a wild card scenario useful is when the future it describes would produce disproportionately dire consequences. The classical case of an unlikely scenario with dire consequences is H1N1 pandemic virus mutates into a 'Superbug' and killing millions of people. The combination of its extreme unlikelihood and horrific consequences make its risk worth worrying about and planning for. It is not a dry academic exercise but an effective way to plan for the future. Most people don't realize there is an opportunity side of the equation, and that these exercises usually help unfold a lot of new opportunities too. So it is not only for planning for the big disasters.

According to Meyer and Miller:

• The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or the lack of decisions), not as result of plans


• All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of the future, and the selection of the most highly valued offeasible alternatives


• Evaluation and decisions are influenced by the degree of uncertainty associated with expected consequences


• The products of planning should be designed to increase the chance of making better decisions the result of planning is some form of communication with decision makers

---

Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.