I Love My iPad Mini

So There is No Reason Why I Won't Like My iPad. Just Add A Camera.

by Idris Mootee

Some are comparing the iPad to Netbooks, but it is not a fair comparison. I don't like Netbooks myself. I used to have a Sony one 14 years ago. It was a very powerful mini notebook with a built-in camera (a first at that time). It costs me $2,300 when I purchased that from a now bankrupt computer store chain in San Jose. It was a good one except keyboard was too small and battery life short. According to the guy at a local Best Buy store, 8 out of 10 Netbooks sold are returned. I am sure that's not the case in Asia. I think many people have the wrong expectations, and are not aware of the limitations of Netbooks.

There was one kid working at Best Buy who asked me if I like the iPod Touch Jumbo, he was referring to iPad. I said I like the iPad mini (iPod Touch) that I have now, so I think I will like the iPad. The only disappointment for me is the lack of a camera, because I think if I carry that all the time and being able to use Skype is great plus. It doesn't add much to the cost. The camera needs to be in the front obviously. It is still a little heavy; adding 1.5 lbs to my Louis Vuitton briefcase is pushing it. No video output is a negative; the other Lenovo Ideapad I bought has an HDMI output. The Lenovo tablet is a pretty good one with robust design for business use. Even with many criticisms, iPad will be an isntant success. I guarantee you the iPad is not another Newton.

iPad preorders are pouring in. Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board (subscription needed) noted that iPad pre-orders dropped from an estimated 25,000 per hour on Friday, the first day of availability, to around 1,000 per hour over the weekend. For the three-day period, the cumulative total was estimated at 152,000. That's pretty good.

I think the iPad will open up opportunities for print media and help shape portable media experiences. I can't read magazines from my Blackberry of iPhone, but with the iPad, it is a different story. The iPad platform has more than enough screen real estate and resolution to build interesting media sharing and communication experiences. Of course we have choices of other manufacturers - Microsoft, Sony, Samsung, Lenovo, and almost everyone else, are all working iPad-like devices - in addition to those who have products in the market (such as Amazon).

Microsoft's Courier is an interesting one, currently in "late prototype" stage of development. At least they are not making the tablet mistake, the dual 7-inch screens are multitouch, and designed for writing, flicking and drawing with a stylus, in addition to fingers. There is a camera at the back too (sorry Apple). Currently, Microsoft is working on the user experience and showing design concepts to outside agencies. Microsoft's tablet heritage is digital ink-oriented, and this interface, while unlike anything we've seen before, clearly draws from that, its work with the Surface touch computer and even the Zune HD.

Sony is doing some catch-up although they are stuck with their paradigm of competitive advanatage. The Wall Street Journal reports that Sony is working on a device that's described as being part Netbook, part e-reader and part PlayStation Portable. Sources within the electronic giant also report that Sony is working on a "PlayStation Phone," which would be capable of downloading and playing PlayStation games. Sony needs help.


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Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.

Insights to Drive Apple iPad Success

by Braden Kelley

Apple announced it's rumored tablet device yesterday and chose to call it the Apple iPad - a very strange and difficult choice. "iPad" is a trademark that is apparently at present owned by Fujitsu. Apple had a similar problem with the iPhone and Cisco, which they were able to resolve with a bit of cash. I suspect that Apple will have to get out their wallet again to make Fujitsu go away. But even more troubling for Apple is that "iPad" is also the name of a fictious product that was lampooned by Mad TV three years ago in a less than flattering video. This has sparked the kind of viral buzz that a new product lauch hopes to avoid - the kind that may cause prospective buyers to not take the device seriously.

The launch of the iPhone was a home run. People immediately got it and lined up around the block to get it when it first came out. The launch of the Apple iPad, like I said before the launch, will likely turn out to be much more like that of the iPod - a single followed by a few more singles to finally score a couple of years later. Why?

Well, Apple themsleves didn't exactly convince everyone that they know why the Apple iPad is a revolutionary device. Here is the tagline for the device:


"Our most advanced technology in a magical and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price."


This would make you think that the Apple iPad is aimed at the tecno-lusting, uber-geek apple faithful who always want to be earliest of early adopters for any gadget from Apple. But from those people, the response to the device was a yawn. Those people are going to want the $829 version and that is a lot of cash for a piece a tecno-jewelry in this economy.

Will they buy a backlit-LCD iPad to use as an eReader or a portable DVD player? No, this group of consumers is not likely to do that either in the volume necessary to make the rumored 10 million first year unit sales. I'm not even sure there are 10 million of this consumer group out there. And if there are, they've probably already got an iPhone or an iPod touch or a Macbook Air that does pretty much anything that they might want to do on an Apple iPad.

Apple has definitely launched a solution in search of a problem. Apple's launch marketing shows that. In my mind the key question as to whether the iPad will be a success or not is this one:


"Do people want or need a fourth screen?


Most people already have three types of screens:

1. Large Screen (currently a television)
   
2. Personal Computer (Desktop, Laptop, or Netbook)
   
3. Mobile Phone (increasingly shifting to pocketable PC/phone devices)

Will the iPad realistically replace one of these? Probably not. Head-to-head it doesn't solve the relevant problem any better than the device in use. So it has to be a fourth screen - for most people. And, that is the way they've launched it. The iPad is a fourth screen for people who have lots of cash and can afford to have the iPad just laying around to pick up and use when their iPhone screen is too small and they can't be bothered to go boot up their computer. In the home it will probably be used most often when the Large Screen is already on. But that's a tiny market.

Apple doesn't know who this device is really for. But, when you're so focused on the technology and the design, somtimes you forget about the customer. Is the Apple iPad cool? Yes. Will Apple sell massive quantities of them in its first year? No. Will they eventually? Maybe.

For innovation to occur you must progress all the way from insight to adoption. Here is how I lay that out in my Innovation Moonshot framework:



For the iPad to become an innovation, Apple is going to spend probably 2-3 years in the Solution Education phase for the iPad (similar to the iPod):

• Getting it in customers hands
  
• Having them experience it
  
• Enhancing the device
  
• Finding ways to lower the price

$499 is a lot for a fourth screen. To do big numbers as a fourth screen, the iPad is going to have hit the $199-299 price point (or lower). I can't see Apple wanting to go there for a couple of years (if ever).

So, if Apple wants to sell large numbers of these, they might consider targeting non-customers in the primary screen market. These would be people who don't have a computer or have one but don't really want one. Let me explain. These are people like mother-in-law or my dad, who have no interest in computers or their complexity, but might want to do a bit of e-mail, get on the internet and look at some photos that people e-mail them or post online. For this group of non-customers, $499 isn't a bad price point because for them they would be buying one of their first three screens (probably their second or third). You can read more on this particular insight here.

But, if you're listening Apple, I've said it before and I'll say it again.


"People don't want a fourth screen. What they want to do is extend the screen they have in their pocket."


In the future as I see it, three screens will be too many. I've laid out my vision for the digital future before and I'll give a snapshot here again. If a hardware manufacturer would actually like to discuss my vision at length, please contact me. Here is my vision again:

What would be most valuable for people, what they really want, is an extensible, pocketable device that connect wirelessly to whatever input or output devices that they might need to fit the context of what they want to do. To keep it simple and Apple-specific, in one pocket you've got your iPhone, and in your other pocket you've got a larger screen with limited intelligence that folds in half and connects to your iPhone and can also transmit touch and gesture input for those times when you want a bigger screen. When you get to work you put your iPhone on the desk and it connects to your monitor, keyboard, and possibly even auxiliary storage and processing unit to augment the iPhone's onboard capabilities. Ooops! Time for a meeting, so I grab my iPhone, get to the conference room and wirelessly connect my iPhone to the in-room projector and do my presentation. On the bus home I can watch a movie or read a book, and when I get home I can connect my iPhone to the television and download a movie or watch something from my TV subscriptions. So why do I need to spend $800 for a fourth screen again?

Tell me Apple...


For some of my other articles on the Apple iPad written pre-launch, please go here.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet Article Rundown

by Braden Kelley

Today is the day of Apple's latest media event. This is the one where everyone expects Apple to introduce some kind of new tablet device (iPad, iTouch, iSlate, etc.). Because this could be another transformational device innovation by the company, and because insights should always come before ideas and solutions, we've been discussing some of the potential insights behind the device here on Blogging Innovation.

If you've missed some of these articles or would still like to join the conversation before or after the device is launched today, here is a rundown of the articles we've contributed to the Apple tablet conversation beginning with the article on the bottom on August 31, 2009:

1. Apple Tablet Won't Save Newspapers
   
2. Will Apple Introduce the Innovation Expected from Google?
   
3. Apple Tablet Won't Be Runaway Success
   
4. Microsoft - Apple - Google in Tablet Battle
   
5. 2010 - Year of the Man Purse
   
6. Where's the Innovation Google?
   
7. Apple Tablet Sneak Preview
   
8. What Innovation Could an Apple Tablet Offer?
   
9. Apple Tablet or iPhone Accessory?
   

The articles are not feature rumor articles, but instead a collection of conversations around why Apple might do a tablet device, what kinds of innovation they might offer, and the launch of such a device might affect human and market behavior.

I hope you enjoy them. And I, like everyone else, look forward to seeing what Apple actually introduces today.

Insights and execution drive business success. Let's see what insights Apple has chosen to build their device on, and if they can execute on delivering a solution powered by those insights that finds success in the marketplace.

We're waiting...

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet Won't Save Newspapers

by Braden Kelley

I came across an article talking about some of the reasons why any Apple tablet (iSlate, iPad, iTablet, Macbook, etc.) won't save the newspaper publishing industry.

Keep in mind that when it comes to innovation, it must move through a lifecycle that begins with an insight and ends with adoption. The bigger the innovation, the harder it is to progress through the whole lifecycle, especially the adoption phase. The more innovation introduced in an Apple tablet, the longer it will take to reach mass adoption.

The most important points of the article center around potential barriers to adoption of an Apple tablet and their cascade effect on becoming barriers to adoption of a newspaper subscription on an Apple tablet (especially regional or local papers). Here are a few to consider:

1. The high cost of any Apple device (likely to cost $500-700 when purchased with a data plan)


2. The high cost of an acompanying data plan (probably another $600-800 annually)


3. This will likely be an incremental not a replacement device (people will have to decide whether they can afford to buy another computer to supplement a desktop or laptop and a mobile phone or smartphone


4. Will people want to pay to subscribe to the Seattle Times when they could pay to subscribe to the New York Times, USA Today, Financial Times, or Wall Street Journal?


5. People have a lot of free online news and entertainment options


6. People must allocate their discretionary entertainment spending amongst newspapers, magazines, books, television, internet, video, music, games, and more


7. Many of the most popular App Store downloads are free or low cost items

These barriers to adoption may slow the adoption of an Apple tablet (as imagined by the most reliable of the rumor mongers). But, if or when an Apple tablet does catch on, it is quite possible that if anything, an Apple tablet might actually accelerate the demise of local newspapers.

What do you think?


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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Will Apple Introduce the Innovation Expected from Google?

by Braden Kelley

Some great conversations have sprung up around my previous articles on the rumored Apple Tablet (iSlate). In the past I focused on what innovation Apple's potential tablet device might offer and whether or not Apple is likely to make the rumored first year sales projection of 10 million units.

A recent comment from "Marketing Department" brought up the topic of subsidies and whether or not Apple might be on the verge of introducing another business model innovation. So, in this article we'll dig a little deeper into that possibility.

When Apple launched the iPod, they introduced the iTunes business model innovation which turned the music industry on ear, quickly followed by the television and movie industries. Then Apple launched the iPhone and introduced the App Store business model innovation and introduced a new way for people to purchase software that the competition quickly rushed to copy. Now, what could Apple create with a Tablet device?

Well, obviously the App Store and iTunes will be present on this new device, and the iTunes Store will likely be extended to cover books, newspapers, and magazines. An extension of the iTunes Store is more of an incremental innovation. So what disruptive business model innovation could Apple do that would catch the competition off-balance?

Well, in my mind, Apple could very well launch the business model innovation that I expected to come with Google's Nexus One smartphone (but didn't) - shifting the subsidy model.

Currently, when a customer buys the Google Nexus One or the Apple iPhone, the mobile service provider subsidizes the cost of the device by about $325 in exchange for a 2-year contract from the customer. This ties the customer to the carrier for two years (and usually longer). I was expecting the Nexus One launch to include an unlocked phone that Google themselves subsidized in one way or another. One way could have been to pay the customer to use the phone on whatever carrier they wished by depositing money every month in a Google Checkout account based on ad views. This did not happen.

But Apple could take this idea one step further. Not only are they moving into the advertising game with some of their recent acquisitions, but they already have the incredible reach and product offerings provided by the iTunes Store and the App Store. While several people expect any Apple Tablet (iSlate) to have a retail price of $800-$1,000, a mobile carrier subsidy might bring it down into the $500-700 range. Might not Apple then be willing to subsidize it even further based on expected future media and content sales to push the price down into the $300-500 range and make it cost competitive with netbooks and the Amazon Kindle?

After all, Apple makes money (or could make money) in a number of different ways after the device purchase:

1. Applications (Downloads, In-App Advertising, In-App Purchases)
2. Media (Music, Movies, Television)
3. Books and Textbooks
4. Subscriptions (Music Streaming, Movie Downloads, Newspapers, Magazines, TV)
5. Advertising (TBD)
6. MobileMe

You could look at this very much like HP and their ink cartridge business. But how much of a subsidy could Apple offer?

Well, some limited data I found indicates that from this particular data set that the average iTunes transaction is $7 and an average of three transactions per month are made. That would equate to about $21 per month or $250 per year. So, what if you add in games, applications, and other content?

To keep the calculations easy let's say that the $250 becomes $500 when other kinds of content are added in, and using Apple's 30% revenue share, that would give an estimate of $150 per year per user. Yes, I know this is highly simplified, and from a small dataset, but we're just imagining possibilities not doing financial forecasts.

From this point, you could go two ways, look at this as a customer lock-in possibility for Apple and a potential perpetuity, or look at a fixed device life. Again, because this is only illustrative let's simplify and say that over four years Apple might expect (using this data) to earn $600 in revenue per device (excluding advertising revenue) and if Apple decided to dedicate 25% of this revenue to a subsidy, they could allocate $150 to bring down the cost of the device and the rest to go towards costs and profits. Throw in some advertising revenue for good measure, and maybe it makes sense for Apple to subsidize this new device by the $200 that might be necessary to bring the price to customer down into the $300-$500 sweet spot.

But how much of this revenue is incremental revenue? Will the device be an incremental purchase (an additional device people buy), or will it replace a Macbook, iMac, iPhone, or iPod purchase? Would it really make sense to do this?

Hopefully these quick and crude calculations have helped you to see why Apple might consider launching their own subsidy with their rumored tablet device (iSlate, iPad, iCanvas, iTablet, Macbook Slate, etc.) and why they might not. It will be rather interesting to see what they do...


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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet Won't Be Runaway Success

by Braden Kelley

First we had incredible hype around Motorola's Droid and its sales so far have proven to be just okay. Then we had even more hype around Google's phone entry - the Nexus One - and its sales results so far have been meager.

So, now along comes Apple with its much-hyped (and only rumored) tablet innovation, which we expect to be announced on January 27, 2010 at a special media event in San Francisco.

There have been reports of Apple expecting to sell 10 million devices in the first year, and there have been rumors of a device price in the $800-1,000 range. If Apple's new device does in fact turn out to be a 3G tablet, and even if Verizon and/or AT&T (or possibly even Sprint/Clear for 4G) subsidize $300 of the cost like they do with smartphones, that would still be a $500-700 price tag with another $60 per month for data service.

Are 10 million people really going to be willing to spend between $1,000 and $1,500 in year one for a tablet device after probably buying a laptop, an HDTV, and maybe a smartphone in the last 24 months?



I don't think this will be the case. It took Apple over three years to sell 10 million iPods (Q4 2001 to Q4 2004). Three years! Apple took eighteen months to sell 10 million iPhones (2/3 of those coming in months 16-18 from iPhone 3G sales). People need to remember that even if someone launches an innovation into the marketplace, its sales don't take off immediately. Let's re-visit my definition of innovation:


"Innovation transforms the seeds of invention into a solution valued above every existing alternative."


It's that last bit (valued above every existing alternative) that will be a struggle for Apple's rumored tablet in the short term. Even if people think that the device is better in some ways than devices they already have, will people replace a smartphone with it? Will they trade their laptop in for it? Or will this be an additional device?

While the device will likely ultimately be successful, it won't set the world on fire out of the gate like people are expecting. It won't be another runaway success like the iPhone, say what you will. It won't exactly be the Newton, but its success will likely be more akin to that of the iPod.

It's a good thing too because cellular providers are going to need time to build out additional network capacity, and possibly to even acquire additional spectrum, before the whole world moves from fixed-line and WiFi computing to cellular-network-based computing.

While the smarter strategy would be to make the iPhone faster and more extensible (creating a true pocketable computer), if Apple does launch a tablet with incredibly innovative capabilities, it will probably take 18-24 months for Apple to sell 10 million of them. Apple will be held back by the speed of 4G network rollouts (currently expected between 2010-2012 depending on provider) and by competition from the iPhone 3GS, iPhone v4, Macbook Pro, and other computing and entertainment options.

Even if Apple's rumored tablet will take a while to catch on with consumers, it has already sent shock waves through the technology and publishing industries with every technology company under the sun rushing out either a new tablet computer or a new e-reader. Amazon is running scared. This week Amazon announced both better royalty terms for e-book authors and publishers, and new application development capabilities for the Kindle.

So, is Apple's stock overvalued?

Do you think I'm completely wrong?


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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Microsoft - Apple - Google in Tablet Battle

by Braden Kelley

2010 may be the year of the man purse, and it will be very interesting to see what people to choose to put in the new gadget bag they will keep close at hand.

In this article we've got a video sneak preview of another potential Apple Tablet application, and two videos of what Microsoft's entry into the tablet wars might look like. Microsoft might actually fire the first shot in the tablet wars at this week's Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

Apple (iSlate) and Microsoft (along with HP) are both already trying to re-imagine what my be possible in the mobile computing environment, and I'm sure Google with join the fray soon (along with HTC). The key thing to watch here though is not the technology that the companies come up with, but the changes that we are going to start seeing in people's computing behavior. That will be the fascinating bit. Computing is about to undergo a major transformation, and while I would rather see an extensible mobile phone than a proliferation of new devices, I think they'll help us get there.

First let's take a look at a video sneak preview of Microsoft's Courier:





And then here is another video showing a conceptualization of how Microsoft thinks people might use it:





And finally, Coursesmart, a digital-publishing joint venture of five major textbook publishers,looks to move beyond their current iPhone and iPod Touch offerings to woo students to adopt their planned eTextbooks for the planned Apple Tablet in place of regular textbooks. Check out the video here:





So what do you think?

Which device would you like to have close at hand in your gadget bag?

Follow the link for another sneak preview of a magazine application for the Apple Tablet.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

2010 - Year of the Man Purse

by Braden Kelley

I've been trying to decide whether to make any 2010 predictions, and I never thought that this would end up being the one that I chose, but here goes:

2010 will be the year of the man purse - thanks to the proliferation of netbooks, e-readers, and a new generation of tablets launching this year from Apple, Plastic Logic, Google, and others.

It probably won't happen in the first half of the year, but by the time back-to-school and christmas roll around, man purses will finally start to catch on.

Some people will call it a satchel to make themselves feel more manly, and others will see no shame in calling it a man purse, but the fact remains that people will want a way to keep close at hand the gadgets that they are beginning to see as an extension of themselves.

Way back in 2006 celebrities including Robert Downey Jr., David Beckham, and Cuba Gooding Jr. were using man purses, but they didn't cross the chasm because there wasn't enough value created for the average joe. But now, don't be surprised if by the end of 2010 you see more celebrities like possibly Shaquille O'Neil, LeBron James, or Chad OchoCinco sporting a man purse to help carry the gadgets they choose to use to connect with their fans.

For my money, the biggest unknown is not whether man purses catch on, but which devices will be their main residents. Which devices will earn the right to be worn?

Apple is not going to have this market to themselves, no matter how cool their tablet might be.

So, what kind of device will Google come up with?

Can Amazon counter with something to keep the Kindle relevant?

What do you think?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet Sneak Preview

by Braden Kelley

Following on from my article on what innovation an Apple Tablet might offer and Idris Mootee's article on Apple's 3D efforts for gaming, I bring you a video sneak preview of some of the innovation an Apple tablet might offer.

This isn't of course exactly what an Apple tablet (or iSlate) might look like, but it gives you an idea of one application type that an Apple device might offer, and it shows the further disruption coming to the book, magazine, newspaper, and television industries.





You can see in the video that in such a device, even more so than on the traditional web, that magazine publishers now need to have video, and merge or partner with people that produce video on the same topic. ESPN is particularly well-positioned for this type of new content consumption environment because they already have a print magazine, a web property, and content from several television channels that they can bring together into a seamless experience. It is ironic that Sports Illustrated is helping people imagine a world that ESPN is more likely to dominate than they are.

Such device capabilities will also raise the bar for what it means to publish a book, as the potential to incorporate images, video, slide shows, and mini-applications more easily will offer the opportunity for authors to better address visual and kinesthetic learners than ever before.

You can also see the possibilities to design such a device to extend television and gaming experiences beyond the main screen and make television more interactive than ever before.

At the same time, if Apple launches such a tablet device, it will still bring with it the ability to play music, video, and games in the same ways that people do today with their iPod Touch, iPhone, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, or portable DVD player. And, if they find the right screen, Apple will likely offer the first compelling portable High-Definition (HD) entertainment experience.

With the right technology, as you see in the video, an Apple Tablet may be able to offer every single type of entertainment in a convenient way in a single, portable device (including web browsing with a mobile broadband connection).

Final thought: With such a device, there is also no reason why you couldn't get location-based services with text, audio, and video content at museums, theaters, sporting venues, theme parks, and more - to enhance any physical world experience in new ways.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

What Innovation Could an Apple Tablet Offer?

by Braden Kelley

With all of the internet chatter about Apple's rumored tablet computer, I've been asking myself two questions:

1. Does it make sense for Apple to make a tablet computer?
2. What innovation could an Apple tablet offer?

These questions are not as easy to answer as they may appear at first glance. The main reason? When it comes to technology, just because technically you can make something, it doesn't mean commercially that you should. Technology often begins maturing before consumers are aware of the need or pain that the solution addresses and before the minds of consumers can visualize how it fits into their lives. So, when we look at the Apple tablet chatter and Question #1, we have to ask ourselves:

What is the proven or imminent customer need that an Apple table computer would resolve?

Tablet computers have been around for decades and Tablet PCs have been around since 2001 (offered by multiple vendors including Toshiba, HP, etc.). Tablet PC's have achieved very low market penetration in that eight years (outside of certain vertical success stories), but still every manufacturer has one.

There is already a MacOS driven tablet computer for sale - the Modbook - and it is not exactly flying off the shelves. Competitors are making noise about new tablet computers, too. Microsoft is reportedly working to launch a new Tablet PC platform called Microsoft Courier and there are reports of Android-based tablets coming soon too. All this noise despite Tablet PC sales being only a small fraction of overall PC sales. So what gives?

Well, computer manufacturers believe that a shift may occur to a new computing form factor in the same way that PC sales started shifting from desktop computers to laptop computers a few years ago. But despite Tablet PC's being out before netbooks by several years, it was the netbook that took off, not the Tablet PC.

At the same time, consumers are shifting a portion of their computing from desktops and laptops (and even netbooks) to the emerging class of always-connected handheld computers (Apple iPhone, Motorola Droid, new Blackberry devices, Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble Nook, etc.). Hardware manufacturers are making their bets now and have been for the last several years to maintain a complete product range and guard against any potential shift away from desktop and laptop PC's. There are even rumors that Dell may make a mobile phone.

If Apple launches a Tablet PC, they will not be successful, but I don't think that a traditional Tablet PC is what Apple is looking at. Apple does not launch me-too products. Apple seeks to launch products that offer greater value than the competition and products with new benefits so that they can justify higher prices and margins than the competition.

In isolation, my answer to Question #1 would be - No, it does not make sense, for Apple to make a tablet computer. There is no proven customer need that an Apple Tablet PC could solve.

BUT, there are some imminent customer needs that Apple could solve, IF it could create enough compelling innovation (see Question #2).


So what innovation could Apple offer and how would it satisfy imminent customer needs?

Well, electronic book readers haven't exactly taken off yet (Amazon still won't disclose how many Kindles they've sold - always a sign of hype), but prices are dropping and the recognition of their value in the minds of consumers is growing.

At the same time, most households own one or more portable DVD players and often one or more gaming consoles (including portable gaming devices) and one or more portable music devices. These taken together with the emerging market for electronic book readers, represents a huge number of portable entertainment devices.

Now, the screens for an electronic book reader and other portable entertainment devices are very different, but could Apple find a way to combine the two types of screens together in a single device? The Barnes & Noble Nook does this in a very primitive way. Apple could create some very interesting innovations to create a whole new form factor and create a whole new portable entertainment device category at the same time, one that:

1. Combines an e-ink display with a color LED-backlit LCD


2. Wirelessly connects to an iMac, Macbook, wireless keyboard, projector or other peripherals


3. Connects to your HD television


4. Is good enough at gaming to challenge game consoles for living room supremacy


5. Would provide a better video viewing experience than an iPod Touch or iPhone


6. Has the potential to disrupt the book industry even further


7. Has the potential to disrupt the video gaming and DVD markets even further


8. Has the potential to disrupt the Mac applications market (expanded App Store anyone?)


9. Integrates new human-computer interfaces like the iPhone did when it came out


10. Does something else that I can't imagine because I'm not close enough to the technology

This list, along with the imminent customer needs, makes it look reasonable for Apple to launch another portable form factor, but it doesn't make sense to bring out a device in the $1,000-$2,000 price range. So, if Apple comes out with a tablet, it won't be a computer per se, but more likely a portable entertainment device that happens to also have some computing capabilities. Kind of like the iPhone...

What do you think? Will Apple do it?

Will new display technology like that of Pixel Qi allow Apple to disrupt the Kindle by offering a device that combines the readability of an e-ink screen with the color and video capabilities of an LCD?

Will you buy one in the $499-599 price range? What about for $299-399 range if it is subsidized by a mobile carrier (probably Verizon or Sprint)?

Can this concept succeed until 4G is broadly available (2011 or 2012 for the USA)?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet or iPhone Accessory?

by Braden Kelley

There is a lot of chatter out there focusing on the possibility of a new Apple Tablet being announced at Apple's next media event on September 9, 2009.


Will Apple launch a tablet computer?

Does it make sense for Apple to do so?


Let's look at the current state of the market for computing devices:

1. Many companies and individuals have recently made the switch from desktop computers to laptop computers


• Yet, still IDC forecasts laptops like the Apple Macbook to represent only 55% of worldwide sales in 2009


2. People are only now beginning to make the switch from dumb phones to smartphones in earnest


• Yet in Q4 2008, only 23% of handsets sold in the USA were smartphones like the Apple iPhone (according to NPD group)


3. Netbooks are currently the hot computing category


4. Mobile operators in many countries charge by the device for Internet access


• Adding an Apple Tablet would likely add $60/month to a mobile phone bill in the USA

So, given that a huge majority of individuals don't even have a smartphone, are starting to keep their hardware longer, and may have just purchased a new laptop or netbook, does it make sense for Apple to launch a tablet or netbook computer?


I may be completely wrong, but personally I think that:

1. Apple will not announce an Apple Tablet or Apple Netbook on September 9, 2009


• Even if they wanted to, I don't think they could make such a launch before January 2010 at the earliest


2. Apple may never launch an Apple Tablet or an Apple Netbook


• Experimentation with touch screens of various sizes could also point to a wireless iPhone and iPod Touch accessory

A Shift in How We Compute


People's behavior is changing. As people move to smartphones like the Apple iPhone, these devices are occupying the middle space (around the neighborhood), and the mobility of laptops is shifting to the edges - around the house and around the world.

Personally I believe that as smartphones and cloud computing evolve, these devices will become our primary computing hub and new hardware will be introduced that connects physically, wirelessly or virtually to enhance storage, computing power, screen size, input needs, output needs, etc.


- This would be thinking differently.
- This would be more than introducing a 'me-too, but a little better' product.
- This would be innovation.

And this would allow Apple (or someone else), by embracing this concept, to link up with pervasive, mobile, wearable computing efforts like those underway at IBM Research and elsewhere.


What will Apple really do?


What do you think?


See also: "Apple's Dilemma - Netbook, Tablet or Bigger iPod Touch"

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.