iPhone Pro in June 2009?

Ok, it was a year ago now that I started making noise about the iPhone Pro that I expected to arrive, based on the underwhelming iPhone 3G launch.

I, of course, thought that the iPhone Pro would make its appearance by Macworld in January (not the iPhone Nano thought other people were suggesting would be introduced), but neither was released as Apple announced that the iPhone was on a June annual release cycle.

Now it's February. The speculation is mounting on what Apple might release in June. Some people are theorizing that Apple will introduce a new $99 iPhone.

I can see a $99 iPhone happening, but I'm not sure I can see Apple investing in building an entirely new design to sell at that pricepoint, given the limitations that the iPhone 3G already has.

Apple will definitely introduce a new iPhone in June, but I still believe it will be a new high-end design, not a new low-end design. If there is a new low-end design it will, in my opinion, only be modestly different than the current iPhone 3G.

Instead, Apple will be looking to reclaim its design leadership with some new capabilities to delight customers, and to provide application developers with some new possibilities. In the past year the Blackberry Storm, the 3-megapixel Sony Xperia X1, the 5-megapixel Nokia N97, and the 8-megapixel Samsung Memoir have all come on the scene to provide attractive alternatives to the iPhone.

I still believe the main new features will be a 5-megapixel swivel video camera (or a front/rear facing camera combo) and a video iChat application for the iPhone Pro.

As a recap, here are the features that I predicted almost two years ago for the third version of the iPhone (noting those achieved), which I now believe will be the iPhone Pro that will launch in the June timeframe:

• 5-megapixel swivel camera (or paired with a 2-megapixel screen-side video-enabled lens)


• Video iChat capability (iChat AV)


• Next generation Bluetooth


• DONE - Bluetooth 2.0 + EDR


• A slightly bigger screen (every millimeter counts) - if the bevel can be reduced


• 16gb or 32gb of flash memory


• Hopefully a faster 3G or WiMax network connection


• DONE with 2nd version


• 802.11n WiFi


• Faster processor with lower power needs


• Improved battery life


• Lower price - $299 or less


• 2nd version hit $199-299 - I now think iPhone Pro will also be priced at $199-299 and the iPhone 3G will drop in price to FREE-$99

So, who thinks I'm right?

Note: These are purely my opinions based on my understanding of technology and of strategy, and are not based on any inside knowledge. For someone else's view on possible specs, see here.

@innovate

Clearwire/Sprint Followup

I came across an article today about Sprint offering a 3G/4G USB Modem for $149 with a $79.99 per month contract. This USB modem will automatically switch between Sprint's 3G network and Clearwire's 4G WiMax network when it is available (which is currently only in parts of Baltimore).

It is a great step forward for Sprint/Clearwire that will make the service more attractive, but will people really pay an extra $20 a month for such a big external device?

If they really want Clearwire to be a runaway success, they need to find a way to embed this kind of technology into the phone and allow tethering of the phone to any computer (especially laptops). If they did that and threw in 1000 minutes and unlimited texts and unlimited data for $60 per month. I'm in.

What do you think?

@innovate

Will Clearwire survive until its market appears?

Clearwire recently completed the acquisition of Sprint's WiMax assets. Sprint's assets merge together with Clearwire's original WiMax assets to create the nation's largest WiMax operator.

I hate to beat up a local business, but Clearwire/Sprint represents a perfect case study of the perils of:

1) Letting ego drive strategy instead of market fundamentals
2) Launching into the marketplace too soon

Clearwire originally launched in smaller American cities where fixed-line consumer broadband was not widely available (making wireless broadband an attractive option). But, not content to fully exploit this niche, Clearwire instead began building out and promoting wireless broadband networks in first-tier cities like Seattle with a product that provided inferior speeds, service, and value. Instead of maximizing their niche strategy and waiting for technology and execution that provided a compelling value proposition for first-tier markets, they chose to launch with a sub-optimal offering and significantly increase their cash burn. I would argue that Clearwire made a mistake going after tier one cities when they did (destroying valuable brand equity they'll need later).

Meanwhile, Sprint was facing its own challenges in the wireless market (where they were now #3) and hoped WiMax would somehow propel them back into the top spot. Millions of dollars later Sprint decided the WiMax effort was a distraction and a money pit and agreed to merge their newly created Xohm unit into Clearwire in order to shore up their balance sheet and restore focus to their core business.

Collectively, Clearwire and Xohm have burned through a ton of cash and expect to lose an ever increasing amount now that they are starting to build out their network. A network they are starting to build out 1-2 years too soon. Why do I think that?

First, WiMax-capable mobile phones are a rarity and it will be another year before smart phones really start exploding in the United States. Plus, there are only a few laptops currently that come with WiFi/WiMax chips built-in. Given current economic conditions, in one to two years a huge majority (probably 70-80%) of people will still have laptops, desktops, and mobile devices without the capability of connecting to Clearwire's network. That means very few urbanites are going to subscribe to the network they are building.

So what should they do?

Delay building the network. Delay the start by 1-2 years. Lobby Congress to help make it an infrastructure project (Why not? - everyone else has their hand out). Roll out the network in line with technology adoption, not in advance of it.

Begin building the network when combination WiFi/WiMax capabilities begin to be built into the cheapest laptops, desktops and smart phones. If Clearwire starts building the network in network in 1-2 years instead of now, they'll be able to install faster or longer range hardware (probably for less), and there will be exponentially more people who will see the value of switching and potentially ditching both their fixed broadband and mobile carriers.

Personally I would love nothing better than to pay $40-60 a month and get both mobile phone service and broadband (for home and to go). If Clearwire can deliver that, I'll be first in line.

Uncrossing the Wires - Can Clearwire be Fixed?

Clearwire is the first major WiMax broadband service offering. The company initially launched with fixed-line replacement broadband for people's homes or offices. This puts them into direct competition with cable and DSL providers. Let's look at the landscape to see how Clearwire stacks up:

Provider	Plan Name	Price	Speed	Term
Clearwire	ClearPremium Choice	$26.99	1.5 Mbps	2 yrs
Clearwire	ClearPremium Plus	$44.99	2.0 Mbps	2 yrs (3 mos. at $19.99)
Qwest	Faster	$44.99	1.5Mbps	2 yrs ($26.99 with home phone)
Qwest	Fastest	$54.99	7.0 Mbps	2 yrs ($36.99 with home phone)
Comcast	High Speed Internet	$52.95	6.0 Mbps	0 yrs ($42.95 with cable TV)

As you can see, Clearwire's service offerings are not necessarily any cheaper or faster. In fact, existing Qwest Local Phone and Comcast Cable TV subscribers can get 4x faster access for less money. So why would anyone go with Clearwire?

They are priced at parity with Qwest on their voice bundle:

Provider	Plan Name	Price	Speed	Term
Clearwire	Clearwire Voice Bundle	$71.98	1.5 Mbps	2 yrs (3 mos. at $24.98)
Qwest	Unlim LongDist Bundle	$71.98	1.5 Mbps	2 yrs

But what about mobility? Clearwire announced a PC card service recently that is $10 a month cheaper and slightly faster, but their coverage area is terrible in comparison to Sprint and soon to AT&T as well. Here is how the mobile plans compare:

Provider	Plan Name	Price	Speed	Term
Clearwire	PC Card Premium	$49.99	1.5 Mbps	2 yrs
AT&T	DataConnect	$59.99	1.4 Mbps	2 yrs (5 GB limit)
Sprint	Mobile Broadband	$59.99	1.4 Mbps	2 yrs

Clearwire also has a home/mobile bundle, but if you've got a mobile broadband PC card, what do you need home broadband for unless it is significantly faster (which Clearwire's isn't):

Provider	Plan Name	Price	Speed	Term
Clearwire	ClearPremium Plus w/ PC	$79.99	2.0 Mbps	2 yrs (1.5 Mbps mobile)

So why would anyone signup with Clearwire?

Frankly I'm not sure why someone would unless they have no other option. Clearwire has no clear advantage.

As an outsider looking in, if I were advising Clearwire, here is what I would do:

1. Abandon the home broadband market in metropolitan areas with good cable and DSL coverage
2. Focus on rural areas and smaller metropolitan areas with poor coverage where they may have a unique offer
3. In metropolitan areas, focus on the mobile broadband market and pushing the speed/pricing envelope
4. Focus on developing a WiMax signal booster that can be plugged into any AC or DC power source
5. Explore alternative pricing models, possibly including advertising-supported service (as an option)
6. Push the Sprint partnership through to expand the value of the combined Sprint/Clearwire WiMax offering
7. Could PC cards be used to somehow improve WiFi reception?
8. Support automatic switching to faster user-approved WiFi connection points when in range
9. Partner with local phone or cable companies to be their mobile broadband providers
10. Get Clearwire technology embedded in new laptops along with antennas that boost both WiMax and WiFi reception