Apple Tablet Won't Be Runaway Success

by Braden Kelley

First we had incredible hype around Motorola's Droid and its sales so far have proven to be just okay. Then we had even more hype around Google's phone entry - the Nexus One - and its sales results so far have been meager.

So, now along comes Apple with its much-hyped (and only rumored) tablet innovation, which we expect to be announced on January 27, 2010 at a special media event in San Francisco.

There have been reports of Apple expecting to sell 10 million devices in the first year, and there have been rumors of a device price in the $800-1,000 range. If Apple's new device does in fact turn out to be a 3G tablet, and even if Verizon and/or AT&T (or possibly even Sprint/Clear for 4G) subsidize $300 of the cost like they do with smartphones, that would still be a $500-700 price tag with another $60 per month for data service.

Are 10 million people really going to be willing to spend between $1,000 and $1,500 in year one for a tablet device after probably buying a laptop, an HDTV, and maybe a smartphone in the last 24 months?



I don't think this will be the case. It took Apple over three years to sell 10 million iPods (Q4 2001 to Q4 2004). Three years! Apple took eighteen months to sell 10 million iPhones (2/3 of those coming in months 16-18 from iPhone 3G sales). People need to remember that even if someone launches an innovation into the marketplace, its sales don't take off immediately. Let's re-visit my definition of innovation:


"Innovation transforms the seeds of invention into a solution valued above every existing alternative."


It's that last bit (valued above every existing alternative) that will be a struggle for Apple's rumored tablet in the short term. Even if people think that the device is better in some ways than devices they already have, will people replace a smartphone with it? Will they trade their laptop in for it? Or will this be an additional device?

While the device will likely ultimately be successful, it won't set the world on fire out of the gate like people are expecting. It won't be another runaway success like the iPhone, say what you will. It won't exactly be the Newton, but its success will likely be more akin to that of the iPod.

It's a good thing too because cellular providers are going to need time to build out additional network capacity, and possibly to even acquire additional spectrum, before the whole world moves from fixed-line and WiFi computing to cellular-network-based computing.

While the smarter strategy would be to make the iPhone faster and more extensible (creating a true pocketable computer), if Apple does launch a tablet with incredibly innovative capabilities, it will probably take 18-24 months for Apple to sell 10 million of them. Apple will be held back by the speed of 4G network rollouts (currently expected between 2010-2012 depending on provider) and by competition from the iPhone 3GS, iPhone v4, Macbook Pro, and other computing and entertainment options.

Even if Apple's rumored tablet will take a while to catch on with consumers, it has already sent shock waves through the technology and publishing industries with every technology company under the sun rushing out either a new tablet computer or a new e-reader. Amazon is running scared. This week Amazon announced both better royalty terms for e-book authors and publishers, and new application development capabilities for the Kindle.

So, is Apple's stock overvalued?

Do you think I'm completely wrong?


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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Innovation Perspectives - Insights and Execution

This is the seventh of several 'Innovation Perspectives' articles we will publish this week from multiple authors to get different perspectives on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?'. Now, here is my perspective:

by Braden Kelley

For my money, the most dangerous misconception that leaders have is that coming up with a great idea is the key to innovation.

This is not the case. Insights and execution are the most important ingredients for creating innovation. As more industries become commodity battlegrounds, success will now be the driven by two key things:

1. The quality of the insights a company has identified to build ideas upon


2. The organization's ability to turn their insight-driven ideas into reality

As innovation moves front and center in an increasing number of companies and industries, the quality of insights and execution will separate the winners from the losers.

Apple moving into the phone business should not have surprised a single handset manufacturer out there. What competitive response did handset manufacturers expect as they introduced increasingly music-capable phones?

The idea of a phone that is also a music player is not, in and of itself, a differentiated idea capable of capturing the imagination of the consumer, and so the iPhone was not created with the goal in mind of creating a digital music player that is also a phone (though that was the strategic purpose for its creation). Apple needed a strategic response to protect their digital music player market from being disrupted by the mobile phone handset manufacturers.

But, Apple also knew that to be successful in an industry that they had no experience in, mobile phones, that they needed to introduce a truly differentiated and valuable offering. To achieve that goal, they needed a unique insight to build their ideas on of what a mobile phone should aspire to be.

The insight they chose to build their mobile phone business on, was the insight that people were now ready to make their computing experience more portable, while also at the same time making it more personal. The key idea built on this insight was that of the App Store. In building their phone around this insight, they were able to create a device that not only could play music (and help to protect their digital music player market from being disrupted), but could also perform just about any other function that a user might desire (or even imagine to build).

A lesser company would have endeavored to build the world's best music phone, but instead Apple realized that it was more important to build the world's most personal and customizable mobile phone (that happens to play music). This is the power of building around an insight instead of an idea.

Apple realized that the contracts with AT&T and the permission to do something like the App Store, along with building an application development platform that developers could rally around, were possibly even more important than the device itself.

One of the lesser known innovation truths is that a true innovation is often more than just a single idea, but is often several ideas coming together to serve a new key insight. Apple's insight was that computing was about to become more personal and move to the hand as part of this increasingly personal transition.

What insight will you build your business around?


You can check out all of the 'Innovation Perspectives' articles from the different contributing authors on 'What is the most dangerous current misconception in innovation?' by clicking the link in this sentence.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple, Nintendo, Innovation, and the CEO

by Braden Kelley

I came across this quote from Satoru Iwata, the president of Nintendo:


"My job is to find the potential in something that others can not see, to secretly pour our resources into them and turn them into hits before anyone else catches on,"


The quote was too long to fit in Twitter, so I thought I would share it here because I love the insight. This is the key to successful innovation captured in a single sentence. This quote also highlights one of the most important jobs of a CEO - to lead innovation:

1. To invest in the insights research and exploration necessary to identify the next innovations


2. To fund projects built on these insights (even though they may be risky)


3. To shield the exploration efforts of the company from its ongoing exploitation of current products, services, and markets


4. To build a balanced innovation portfolio


5. To build a tolerance for risk taking and individual project failure within the portfolio


6. To encourage collaboration and to serve as a bridge across silos


7. To be a champion for innovation both inside the company and externally amongst suppliers, partners, and even customers

The quote came from a Wall Street Journal article where the author implies that Mr. Iwata thinks that Nintendo and Apple aren't competitors. In my view, Mr. Iwata is either posturing so that the press doesn't hype the rivalry, or he is a bit blind because Apple most definitely views Nintendo as a competitor.

The real question though is who will dominate mobile gaming five years from now?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

It's Tough to be a Follower

by Steve McKee

The news is out. Sales of the much-ballyhood Palm Pre are...a disappointment. The new smartphone, launched to compete head-on with Apple's groundbreaking iPhone, has lost its momentum.

The Pre, which was launched June 6, got off to a good start but has faded in recent weeks. According to the Wall Street Journal, analysts projected lower sales in the current period than had been expected, and Palm reported a loss of nearly $165 million for its most recent quarter--the first full quarter to include Pre sales results.

Jon Rubinstein, Palm's CEO, says the company "will face near-term pressures until we transition to a more diversified carrier base and expand our family of webOS products, but we are confident we're on the path to success." Makes you wonder if this is a case of actions speaking louder than words, as Palm recently cut the Pre's price by 25 percent (tied to a two-year service agreement), and is issuing 16 million more shares of common stock to overcome a cash problem.

The Pre, by all accounts, is a terrific phone, and offers some enhancements that the iPhone doesn't yet have (see "Features, Smeachers"). But drafting behind the leader isn't the same as taking the lead, and being a little bit better often isn't enough. Especially when the guy up front has his own race strategy (Apple cut the price of its first generation iPhone to 99 bucks within two days of the Pre's launch).

Perhaps Palm will do better with Pixi, a phone targeted at youth, which should be available in time for Christmas. If it's different enough from other offerings in the marketplace, Palm may get it share of attention (and accolades). But if it's another me-too product, the Pixi will get little more than a yawn.

Sometimes a company, like an athlete, falls behind and simply has to catch up. But "catching up" is not a strategy for victory. Innovation is all about finding a way to get--and stay--out front.

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Steve McKee is a BusinessWeek.com columnist, marketing consultant, and author of "When Growth Stalls: How it Happens, Why You're Stuck, and What To Do About It." Learn more about him at www.WhenGrowthStalls.com and at http://twitter.com/whengrowthstall.

iPhone Virtual Reality

Real and virtual worlds are about to collide in a big way.

In September with the expected release of iPhone OS 3.1, some pretty amazing augmented reality applications will begin appearing for the iPhone 3GS. These applications overlay useful info on your view of the real-world using the iPhone's camera. The new crop of augmented reality applications due in September make use of common features like an internet connection and GPS, but because they also utilize a compass, only users of the new iPhone 3GS will be able to install them.

There are several cool demos floating around which I have shared below, but these applications are using unpublished APIs which prevent them from being allowed on the App Store. Apple, however, told one developer that the tools necessary would become available in the pending iPhone OS 3.1.

Here is an application that shows the closest subway stations and how to get to them:





But, my favorite is this concept of an application that proposes to use facial recognition to overlay people's social networking profiles when the application is engaged. I hope they succeed in creating a working real world application based on this concept:





Finally, the innovations in augmented reality will not be restricted to the iPhone 3GS. A new augmented reality app called Layar is described as the world's first mobile augmented reality browser. The Layar browser currently runs on Google Android devices and shows you what is around you by displaying realtime digital information on top of reality through the camera of the mobile phone. Just flip through the directory to find ATM's, bars, houses for sale, hotels and other useful real world items around you.

While Layar is currently available only for Android devices, the developers are working hard on porting it to other platforms (read iPhone 3GS).

This video from the developer shows it running a real estate application:





What other cool applications can you imagine using this techology to augment the real world?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple iPhone OS 3.0 to Enable New Innovations

Apple's next iPhone might contain both video input as well as a magnetometer (digital compass). This opens up some interesting possibilities for iPhone application developers to innovate.

Here is an example of a virtual pet application being developed that would use the video input capabilities:



And here is an example of an application showing what might be possible with magnetometer capabilities:



What do you think?

@innovate

iPhone Pro in June 2009?

Ok, it was a year ago now that I started making noise about the iPhone Pro that I expected to arrive, based on the underwhelming iPhone 3G launch.

I, of course, thought that the iPhone Pro would make its appearance by Macworld in January (not the iPhone Nano thought other people were suggesting would be introduced), but neither was released as Apple announced that the iPhone was on a June annual release cycle.

Now it's February. The speculation is mounting on what Apple might release in June. Some people are theorizing that Apple will introduce a new $99 iPhone.

I can see a $99 iPhone happening, but I'm not sure I can see Apple investing in building an entirely new design to sell at that pricepoint, given the limitations that the iPhone 3G already has.

Apple will definitely introduce a new iPhone in June, but I still believe it will be a new high-end design, not a new low-end design. If there is a new low-end design it will, in my opinion, only be modestly different than the current iPhone 3G.

Instead, Apple will be looking to reclaim its design leadership with some new capabilities to delight customers, and to provide application developers with some new possibilities. In the past year the Blackberry Storm, the 3-megapixel Sony Xperia X1, the 5-megapixel Nokia N97, and the 8-megapixel Samsung Memoir have all come on the scene to provide attractive alternatives to the iPhone.

I still believe the main new features will be a 5-megapixel swivel video camera (or a front/rear facing camera combo) and a video iChat application for the iPhone Pro.

As a recap, here are the features that I predicted almost two years ago for the third version of the iPhone (noting those achieved), which I now believe will be the iPhone Pro that will launch in the June timeframe:

• 5-megapixel swivel camera (or paired with a 2-megapixel screen-side video-enabled lens)


• Video iChat capability (iChat AV)


• Next generation Bluetooth


• DONE - Bluetooth 2.0 + EDR


• A slightly bigger screen (every millimeter counts) - if the bevel can be reduced


• 16gb or 32gb of flash memory


• Hopefully a faster 3G or WiMax network connection


• DONE with 2nd version


• 802.11n WiFi


• Faster processor with lower power needs


• Improved battery life


• Lower price - $299 or less


• 2nd version hit $199-299 - I now think iPhone Pro will also be priced at $199-299 and the iPhone 3G will drop in price to FREE-$99

So, who thinks I'm right?

Note: These are purely my opinions based on my understanding of technology and of strategy, and are not based on any inside knowledge. For someone else's view on possible specs, see here.

@innovate