Insights to Drive Apple iPad Success

by Braden Kelley

Apple announced it's rumored tablet device yesterday and chose to call it the Apple iPad - a very strange and difficult choice. "iPad" is a trademark that is apparently at present owned by Fujitsu. Apple had a similar problem with the iPhone and Cisco, which they were able to resolve with a bit of cash. I suspect that Apple will have to get out their wallet again to make Fujitsu go away. But even more troubling for Apple is that "iPad" is also the name of a fictious product that was lampooned by Mad TV three years ago in a less than flattering video. This has sparked the kind of viral buzz that a new product lauch hopes to avoid - the kind that may cause prospective buyers to not take the device seriously.

The launch of the iPhone was a home run. People immediately got it and lined up around the block to get it when it first came out. The launch of the Apple iPad, like I said before the launch, will likely turn out to be much more like that of the iPod - a single followed by a few more singles to finally score a couple of years later. Why?

Well, Apple themsleves didn't exactly convince everyone that they know why the Apple iPad is a revolutionary device. Here is the tagline for the device:


"Our most advanced technology in a magical and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price."


This would make you think that the Apple iPad is aimed at the tecno-lusting, uber-geek apple faithful who always want to be earliest of early adopters for any gadget from Apple. But from those people, the response to the device was a yawn. Those people are going to want the $829 version and that is a lot of cash for a piece a tecno-jewelry in this economy.

Will they buy a backlit-LCD iPad to use as an eReader or a portable DVD player? No, this group of consumers is not likely to do that either in the volume necessary to make the rumored 10 million first year unit sales. I'm not even sure there are 10 million of this consumer group out there. And if there are, they've probably already got an iPhone or an iPod touch or a Macbook Air that does pretty much anything that they might want to do on an Apple iPad.

Apple has definitely launched a solution in search of a problem. Apple's launch marketing shows that. In my mind the key question as to whether the iPad will be a success or not is this one:


"Do people want or need a fourth screen?


Most people already have three types of screens:

1. Large Screen (currently a television)
   
2. Personal Computer (Desktop, Laptop, or Netbook)
   
3. Mobile Phone (increasingly shifting to pocketable PC/phone devices)

Will the iPad realistically replace one of these? Probably not. Head-to-head it doesn't solve the relevant problem any better than the device in use. So it has to be a fourth screen - for most people. And, that is the way they've launched it. The iPad is a fourth screen for people who have lots of cash and can afford to have the iPad just laying around to pick up and use when their iPhone screen is too small and they can't be bothered to go boot up their computer. In the home it will probably be used most often when the Large Screen is already on. But that's a tiny market.

Apple doesn't know who this device is really for. But, when you're so focused on the technology and the design, somtimes you forget about the customer. Is the Apple iPad cool? Yes. Will Apple sell massive quantities of them in its first year? No. Will they eventually? Maybe.

For innovation to occur you must progress all the way from insight to adoption. Here is how I lay that out in my Innovation Moonshot framework:



For the iPad to become an innovation, Apple is going to spend probably 2-3 years in the Solution Education phase for the iPad (similar to the iPod):

• Getting it in customers hands
  
• Having them experience it
  
• Enhancing the device
  
• Finding ways to lower the price

$499 is a lot for a fourth screen. To do big numbers as a fourth screen, the iPad is going to have hit the $199-299 price point (or lower). I can't see Apple wanting to go there for a couple of years (if ever).

So, if Apple wants to sell large numbers of these, they might consider targeting non-customers in the primary screen market. These would be people who don't have a computer or have one but don't really want one. Let me explain. These are people like mother-in-law or my dad, who have no interest in computers or their complexity, but might want to do a bit of e-mail, get on the internet and look at some photos that people e-mail them or post online. For this group of non-customers, $499 isn't a bad price point because for them they would be buying one of their first three screens (probably their second or third). You can read more on this particular insight here.

But, if you're listening Apple, I've said it before and I'll say it again.


"People don't want a fourth screen. What they want to do is extend the screen they have in their pocket."


In the future as I see it, three screens will be too many. I've laid out my vision for the digital future before and I'll give a snapshot here again. If a hardware manufacturer would actually like to discuss my vision at length, please contact me. Here is my vision again:

What would be most valuable for people, what they really want, is an extensible, pocketable device that connect wirelessly to whatever input or output devices that they might need to fit the context of what they want to do. To keep it simple and Apple-specific, in one pocket you've got your iPhone, and in your other pocket you've got a larger screen with limited intelligence that folds in half and connects to your iPhone and can also transmit touch and gesture input for those times when you want a bigger screen. When you get to work you put your iPhone on the desk and it connects to your monitor, keyboard, and possibly even auxiliary storage and processing unit to augment the iPhone's onboard capabilities. Ooops! Time for a meeting, so I grab my iPhone, get to the conference room and wirelessly connect my iPhone to the in-room projector and do my presentation. On the bus home I can watch a movie or read a book, and when I get home I can connect my iPhone to the television and download a movie or watch something from my TV subscriptions. So why do I need to spend $800 for a fourth screen again?

Tell me Apple...


For some of my other articles on the Apple iPad written pre-launch, please go here.

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Emerging Computing Paradigms

by Idris Mootee

HCI (Human-Computer Interactions) science is fast evolving to deal with emerging computing paradigms. Today it is a little Cognitive Science and AI, a lot of anthropology and Social Psychology.

HCI is a fascinating discipline; the field has its origin in the 80s primarily in computer science and cognitive psychology. Today it exists in a confluence with design as a discipline that owes to traditions including human factors, industrial design, architecture, information design and graphic design. HCI contains a number of semi-distinct fields of research and practices in human-centered informatics. One example is the Sixthsense from the MIT Media Lab. An augmented reality (AR) project, that aims to seamlessly integrate digital information with our everyday physical world. A very cool HCI concept, your hands movements are the interfaces.

HCI is about people, interactions and system interfaces... First, people do what people are good at, such as observation, interpreting, determining what is important, and making the final decisions. There are situations human decisions need to be assisted by data visualizations. Second, computers do what they are good at, which are repetitive tasks and routine. Neither people nor computers are forced to do what the other does better. HCI integrates the two so they can compliment each other to achieve more productivity.

There are a few challenges in applying universal design in the context of HCI in order to provide the formative insight needed to design interactive products that can be experienced by the mass in different contexts. The distinctive characteristics of these products may be identified by briefly considering the changes in the socio-technical paradigm, from the early days of computing to the 21st century human interfaces intended to provide a gateway into the world of distributed information paradigm, the scope and context of use of the computer (hard to define what a computer is these days, or what power is required to achieve the distinction), as it becomes a mediating tool for increasing different types of human (both business and personal) activities.

In another 10 years, mini computing devices will be everywhere as medical and consumer devices reach mass adoption. While HCI is still in its infancy, some HCI practitioners are trying to break away from common conception of an "average" user interacting with a laptop in the office to get work done, and to engage in a conscious effort to develop new understanding, methodologies and tools, in order to understand the following:

1. How emerging new distributed computational paradigms will create new challenges for HCI designs? How do we research behavior that does not exist today?


2. How new interaction /interface design can be effectively used to serve an increasing range of system-mediated human activities?


3. When does interactions / interface design cross the line and becoming service design? Interactive artefacts are now being introduced into service settings in a larger degree.


4. How new visceral interactions that driven by interactive paradigms rather than user needs emerge, beyond the imagination of the novice users.


5. What are the emerging threats to privacy that force us to rethink some fundamental concepts in HCI when attackers, ranging from the curious to the highly malicious, might abuse or subvert the system.

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Idris Mootee is the CEO of idea couture, a strategic innovation and experience design firm. He is the author of four books, tens of published articles, and a frequent speaker at business conferences and executive retreats.

2010 - Year of the Man Purse

by Braden Kelley

I've been trying to decide whether to make any 2010 predictions, and I never thought that this would end up being the one that I chose, but here goes:

2010 will be the year of the man purse - thanks to the proliferation of netbooks, e-readers, and a new generation of tablets launching this year from Apple, Plastic Logic, Google, and others.

It probably won't happen in the first half of the year, but by the time back-to-school and christmas roll around, man purses will finally start to catch on.

Some people will call it a satchel to make themselves feel more manly, and others will see no shame in calling it a man purse, but the fact remains that people will want a way to keep close at hand the gadgets that they are beginning to see as an extension of themselves.

Way back in 2006 celebrities including Robert Downey Jr., David Beckham, and Cuba Gooding Jr. were using man purses, but they didn't cross the chasm because there wasn't enough value created for the average joe. But now, don't be surprised if by the end of 2010 you see more celebrities like possibly Shaquille O'Neil, LeBron James, or Chad OchoCinco sporting a man purse to help carry the gadgets they choose to use to connect with their fans.

For my money, the biggest unknown is not whether man purses catch on, but which devices will be their main residents. Which devices will earn the right to be worn?

Apple is not going to have this market to themselves, no matter how cool their tablet might be.

So, what kind of device will Google come up with?

Can Amazon counter with something to keep the Kindle relevant?

What do you think?

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Apple Tablet or iPhone Accessory?

by Braden Kelley

There is a lot of chatter out there focusing on the possibility of a new Apple Tablet being announced at Apple's next media event on September 9, 2009.


Will Apple launch a tablet computer?

Does it make sense for Apple to do so?


Let's look at the current state of the market for computing devices:

1. Many companies and individuals have recently made the switch from desktop computers to laptop computers


• Yet, still IDC forecasts laptops like the Apple Macbook to represent only 55% of worldwide sales in 2009


2. People are only now beginning to make the switch from dumb phones to smartphones in earnest


• Yet in Q4 2008, only 23% of handsets sold in the USA were smartphones like the Apple iPhone (according to NPD group)


3. Netbooks are currently the hot computing category


4. Mobile operators in many countries charge by the device for Internet access


• Adding an Apple Tablet would likely add $60/month to a mobile phone bill in the USA

So, given that a huge majority of individuals don't even have a smartphone, are starting to keep their hardware longer, and may have just purchased a new laptop or netbook, does it make sense for Apple to launch a tablet or netbook computer?


I may be completely wrong, but personally I think that:

1. Apple will not announce an Apple Tablet or Apple Netbook on September 9, 2009


• Even if they wanted to, I don't think they could make such a launch before January 2010 at the earliest


2. Apple may never launch an Apple Tablet or an Apple Netbook


• Experimentation with touch screens of various sizes could also point to a wireless iPhone and iPod Touch accessory

A Shift in How We Compute


People's behavior is changing. As people move to smartphones like the Apple iPhone, these devices are occupying the middle space (around the neighborhood), and the mobility of laptops is shifting to the edges - around the house and around the world.

Personally I believe that as smartphones and cloud computing evolve, these devices will become our primary computing hub and new hardware will be introduced that connects physically, wirelessly or virtually to enhance storage, computing power, screen size, input needs, output needs, etc.


- This would be thinking differently.
- This would be more than introducing a 'me-too, but a little better' product.
- This would be innovation.

And this would allow Apple (or someone else), by embracing this concept, to link up with pervasive, mobile, wearable computing efforts like those underway at IBM Research and elsewhere.


What will Apple really do?


What do you think?


See also: "Apple's Dilemma - Netbook, Tablet or Bigger iPod Touch"

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Braden Kelley is the editor of Blogging Innovation and founder of Business Strategy Innovation, a consultancy focusing on innovation and marketing strategy. Braden is also @innovate on Twitter.

Sixth Sense

You may have seen a video I posted about a wearable computer designed by some MIT students.

I just came across a TED talk from Pattie Maes that explains the details of the innovation you saw in that video, while also showcasing more of what the technology is capable of and what the device costs to build with off the shelf parts. It's definitely worth a look:



Do you think people will want to wear something like this around?
(post a comment)

@innovate

Interesting Wearable Computer from MIT Students

Here is an interesting video of a wearable computer from MIT students.

Enjoy!



What do you think?

@innovate